农业数字化对农业经济韧性的影响

Impact of agricultural digitization on agricultural economic resilience

  • 摘要: 农业数字化是农业农村现代化发展的必然选择, 是推动农业经济韧性提升的重要动力。本文基于2012—2022年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市, 不包括西藏自治区和中国香港、澳门、台湾地区)的面板数据, 构建农业数字化与农业经济韧性的综合评价指标体系, 并使用熵值法测算二者的发展水平, 在此基础上构建双向固定效应模型、调节效应模型与门槛效应模型, 实证检验农业数字化对农业经济韧性的影响机制。研究发现: 农业数字化能够促进农业经济韧性水平的提升, 且粮食主产区的促进作用比非粮食主产区显著, 东部地区比中部和西部地区显著; 农村居民消费结构升级强化了农业数字化对农业经济韧性的促进效应; 数字普惠金融对农业数字化促进农业经济韧性的提升存在门槛效应。综上, 本文提出重视农业数字化对农业经济韧性的赋能作用、注重农业数字化对农业经济韧性影响的区域异质性、强化农村居民消费结构升级的调节作用、大力发展数字普惠金融等建议, 以期提升农业经济韧性水平, 助力农业高质量发展。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural digitalization is an inevitable choice for the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, and an important driving force to promote the resilience of agricultural economy. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities, excluding Xizang Autonomous Region, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) in China from 2012 to 2022, a comprehensive evaluation index system of agricultural digitalization and agricultural economic resilience was constructed, and the development level of both was estimated by using the entropy method. On this basis, the bidirectional fixed effect model, the adjustment effect model and the threshold effect model were constructed to empirically test the influence mechanism of agricultural digitalization on agricultural economic resilience. The results show that, first, agricultural digital transformation can promote the improvement of agricultural economic resilience, and the promotion of agricultural digitalization in major grain-producing areas is more significant than that in non-major grain-producing areas, and the promotion of agricultural digitalization in eastern regions is more significant than that in central and western regions. Second, the upgrading of rural residents’ consumption has strengthened the promoting effect of agricultural digitalization on the resilience of agricultural economy. Third, digital financial inclusion has a threshold effect on the improvement of agricultural digitalization to promote the resilience of agricultural economy. In summary, suggestions are put forward such as paying attention to the enabling effect of agricultural digitalization on the resilience of agricultural economy, paying attention to the regional heterogeneity of the impact of agricultural digitalization on the resilience of agricultural economy, strengthening the regulating effect of rural residents’ consumption upgrading, and vigorously developing digital inclusive finance, so as to improve the resilience level of agricultural economy and help the high-quality development of agriculture.

     

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