河北省农业碳排放效率与影响因素

Agricultural carbon emission efficiency and influencing factors in Hebei Province

  • 摘要: 河北省是农业大省, 且面临碳排放总量和碳排放强度双高的双重压力, 研究河北省农业碳排放效率对河北省农业实现低碳生产具有重要意义。本文基于2010—2022年河北省农业生产面板数据, 利用带有非期望产出的超效率数据包络模型(Super-SBM)模型, 测算了河北省11个地市农业碳排放效率, 基于全局要素生产率指数(GML)和泰尔指数对其时空分异特征进行了分析, 并在此基础上, 利用面板Tobit模型探究了影响农业碳排放效率的因素。结果表明: 2010—2022年, 河北省农业碳排放效率整体上呈波动上升状态, 总体处于偏上效率水平, 距离效率前沿仍然存在3%的提升空间, 其中冀南地区的效率值提升幅度最为显著, 涨幅0.82。农业碳排放效率泰尔指数由2010年的0.025提升到2022年的0.031, 且泰尔指数地区内部差距大于地区之间差距, 说明冀东、冀中、冀北、冀南4大地域间的农业碳排放效率存在差异但差距较小, 地域内部间的差异显著高于地域之间的差异。各地市之间效率的极差呈波动上升趋势, 到2013年极差达0.89, 之后虽有所下降, 但2016年极差又达到0.86。秦皇岛市、承德市、廊坊市、衡水市、石家庄市、保定市、邢台市、邯郸市8个地市的技术效率和技术进步均对农业碳排放效率的提升做出了贡献, 而唐山市、张家口市、沧州市3个地市农业碳排放效率的提升主要依赖于技术进步。全省农业的技术效率指数、技术进步指数分别以年均1%、13%的速度增长, 与技术效率相比, 技术进步是河北省农业碳排放效率提升的主要因素。农村经济发展水平、城镇化率、有效灌溉率、劳动力文化水平可以显著促进河北省农业碳排放效率提高, 而农业产业化结构、化肥施用强度对农业碳排放效率具有显著负向效应。

     

    Abstract: Hebei province is a large agricultural province, facing dual pressures of high level of total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity. Studying its agricultural carbon emission efficiency is of great significance for achieving low-carbon production in agriculture in Hebei province. Based on the panel data of agricultural production from 2010 to 2022, this study measured the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of 11 cities in Hebei province by using the Super-SBM model with non-expected output. The spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics were analyzed based on the global Factor productivity index (GML) and Theil index. The study further explored the influencing factors affecting agricultural carbon emission efficiency by using the Tobit model. Results showed that during 2010-2022, the overall efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei province was fluctuating. It was generally at a high efficiency level, with 3% room for improvement from the efficiency frontier. The improvement of efficiency in the southern Hebei region was the most significant, with an increase of 0.82. The Theil index of agricultural carbon emission efficiency had increased from 0.025 in 2010 to 0.031 in 2022. And the difference in the Theil index within regions was greater than that between regions. This indicated that the differences in carbon emission efficiency between four major regions of eastern, central, northern and southern Hebei were small, and differences within regions were significantly larger than those between regions. The efficiency gap between different cities showed a fluctuating upward trend. The range reached the level of 0.89 by 2013. Although it decreased afterwards, the range had reached 0.86 again by 2016. The technological efficiency and technological progress of 8 cities, namely Qinhuangdao, Chengde, Langfang, Hengshui, Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Xingtai and Handan, had both contributed to the improvement of agricultural carbon emission efficiency. While the improvement of emission efficiency in 3 cities, namely Tangshan, Zhangjiakou and Cangzhou, mainly relied on technological progress. The technical efficiency index and technical progress index of agriculture in the province had grown at an average annual rate of 1% and 13%, respectively. Compared to technical efficiency, technological progress was the main factor in improving the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei province. The comprehensive level of agricultural environmental management still needed enhancement. The level of rural economic development, urbanization rate, effective irrigation rate and cultural level of the labor force were significant drivers of improving agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Structure of agricultural industrialization and fertilizer application intensity had a significant negative effect on agricultural carbon emission efficiency.

     

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