邻里养殖会促进农户使用农家肥替代化肥吗?
Will neighbor’s livestock breeding promote farmer using manure as a substitute for chemical fertilizer?
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摘要: 种养结合是循环农业最基本实现形式, 采用农家肥替代化肥对于改善农业生态环境质量具有重大意义。从农家肥可获得性的视角出发, 在构建村内邻里养殖对农户施肥行为影响理论分析框架基础上, 基于2011—2018年全国农村固定观察点数据, 采用高维固定效应模型识别了邻里平均养殖规模对农户采用农家肥替代化肥的影响, 以期明晰以村庄为单元实现种养结合的可行性, 得出结论如下: 村内邻里养殖能够有效促进农户采用农家肥替代化肥, 多种稳健性检验均表明研究结论稳健。异质性分析发现, 2014年后开始划定畜禽禁养区的政策一定程度削弱了村内邻里养殖带来的农家肥替代化肥效应; 邻里平均养殖规模的扩大能够有效促进纯种植户采用农家肥替代化肥, 但对既种又养户无明显影响; 邻里平均养殖规模的增加对于小农户采用农家肥替代化肥的促进效果更为明显。因此, 在农牧关系渐行渐远的现实背景下, 以村庄为单元优化种养布局、推进村内邻里互助式种养结合将会是促进农家肥替代化肥、重构农牧能量循环的重要渠道。Abstract: The combination of planting and breeding is the most basic form of realizing recycling agriculture. It is of vital significance to promote manure as a substitute for chemical fertilizer to improve agricultural ecological environment as well as agricultural sustainable development. From the perspective of manure accessibility, theoretical framework was established to analyze the effects of neighbor’s average breeding scale on farmers’ manure and chemical fertilizer usage behaviors and high dimension fixed effect model was applied to identify those effects based on National Fixed Point survey data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs during 2011 to 2018. Results are as follows. (1) Neighbor’s breeding can effectively promote farmers to use manure as a substitute for chemical fertilizer, which remains robust using first-order lag term of core variable considering endogeneity, performing sub-sample test and winsorizing test and replacing explained variable. (2) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the livestock and poultry prohibition zone policy implemented in 2014 undermined the effect of neighbor’s breeding on the substitution of manure for chemical fertilizer. Compared with farmers who both engage in planting and breeding, the improvement of neighbor’s average breeding scale in the village can effectively promote farmers using manure as a substitute for fertilizer for farmers who only engage in planting but not breeding. The effect of neighbor’s average breeding scale on the substitution of manure for chemical fertilizer is more obvious for small farmland scale farmers. Therefore, under the realistic background that the relationship between planting and breeding is becoming increasingly distant, optimizing the distribution of planting and breeding in the village and promoting the combination of planting and breeding among neighbors within village will be an important channel to promote the substitution of manure for chemical fertilizer and reconstruct the energy cycle of agriculture and animal husbandry.