京津冀地区农牧系统氮素损失风险优化调控

Optimization management of the risk of nitrogen losses from crop-livestock production system in Jing-Jin-Ji Region

  • 摘要: 为满足人们日益增长的食物需求, 农牧系统发展迅速。与此同时, 该系统逐渐成为我国氮素环境损失的主要来源, 但是区域间由氮素损失造成的环境风险特征却存在较大差异。因此, 农牧系统的分区精准优化调控对我国农牧业绿色发展具有重要意义。鉴于此, 本文基于京津冀地区农牧系统氮素损失进行了分区分步优化调控。本文分区优化主要根据不同地区损失风险特征选择匹配的减排技术, 分步优化则为3个步骤层层叠加(种养一体化→技术消减→ 空间转移优化)。通过以上方式可以更为精准地调控农牧系统氮素损失风险, 并最大限度实现农牧系统氮素管理的可持续发展。本研究结果发现, 京津冀地区农牧系统通过分区分步优化调控, 可大幅降低系统氮素环境损失风险。对于氨挥发风险来说, 第一步种养一体化可使京津冀地区中高风险区行政区面积(下同)占比降低30.81%, 第二步优化后中高风险区行政区面积占比共降低55.81%, 第三步优化后中高风险区行政区面积占比共降低55.94%~58.42%, 三步优化后最终使得京津冀地区低风险及以下区县行政区面积占比提高至87.89%~90.37%; 对于硝酸盐损失风险来说, 第一步优化后中高风险区行政区面积占比增加7.99%, 第二步优化后中高风险区行政区面积占比共降低22.20%, 第三步优化后中高风险区行政区面积占比共降低22.19%~26.54%, 最终使得京津冀地区低风险及以下区县行政区面积占比提高到79.50%~83.85%。以上结果表明, 通过分区分步精准调控, 京津冀地区农牧系统氮素管理水平可以在最小化经济投入的情况下得到大幅提升, 其大范围的推广和应用, 对未来农牧业绿色可持续发展具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: Crop-livestock production system has developed rapidly to meet the increasing demand of food. However, it is also becoming the main source of nitrogen losses, and there are significant differences in the characteristics of environmental risks from nitrogen losses among different regions. Therefore, the precise optimization and regulation of crop-livestock production system by zone according to spatial differences are of great significance to the sustainable development of the crop-livestock industry in China in the future. Therefore, this study involved the regulation of nitrogen losses in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region via partitioning and step-by-step optimization. Partition optimization mainly considers the selection of corresponding emission reduction technologies based on the risk characteristics of nitrogen losses in different regions, and step-by-step optimization is mainly achieved through three steps: 1) integration of crop and livestock production (returning of organic fertilizer to the field according to the fertilizer demand for crops), 2) emission reduction technologies for different stages and different systems, and 3) spatial planning via the transfer of livestock production from areas with medium- and high-level risk to areas with low-level and no risk. Through the above methods, the risk of nitrogen losses in crop-livestock production system in Jing-Jin-Ji Region can be more precisely controlled, and sustainable development in crop-livestock production system via effective nitrogen management can be achieved. The results of this study were as follows: Through the partitioning and step-by-step optimization of crop-livestock production system in Jing-Jin-Ji Region, the risk of environmental losses derived from nitrogen losses from crop-livestock production system can be reduced. Regarding the risk caused by ammonia emissions, compared to baseline scenario in Jin-Jin-Ji Region in 2017, the proportion of administrative areas (same as below) with medium- and high-level risks decreased by 30.81% after the first step of optimization, then totally decreased by 55.81% after the second step of optimization, and further totally decreased by 55.94%–58.42% after the third step of optimization. In the end, the proportion of the administrative areas with low-level or no risk in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region increased to 87.89%–90.37%, indicating effective reduction in the risk caused by ammonia emissions in this region. Regarding the risk caused by nitrate losses, compared to baseline scenario in Jin-Jin-Ji Region in 2017, the proportion of areas with medium- and high-level risks increased by 7.99% after the first step of optimization, then totally decreased by 22.20% after the second step of optimization, and further totally decreased by 22.19%–26.54% after the third step of optimization. Ultimately, the proportion of administrative areas under low-level risk or no risk in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region increased to 79.50%–83.85%. The nitrogen management level of the crop-livestock production system in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region can be significantly improved through precise regulation via partitioning and step-by-step optimization. Therefore, the promotion and application of nitrogen management in crop-livestock production systems via partitioning and step-by-step optimization at the regional level are of great significance for green and sustainable development of crop-livestock production system with very low economic inputs in the future.

     

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