农业数字化对化肥利用效率影响的实证研究

王慧敏; 朱建军

doi:10.12357/cjea.20240323

农业数字化对化肥利用效率影响的实证研究

王慧敏,
朱建军^,

山东农业大学经济管理学院　泰安　271000

基金项目: 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(21YJA790085)和山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021MG051)资助

详细信息

作者简介:
王慧敏, 主要研究方向为农业经济与政策。E-mail: hmsdau1211@163.com

通讯作者:
朱建军, 主要研究方向为农地政策与新型农业经营主体。E-mail: njzhujianjun@163.com

中图分类号: F323.3
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-06-02
- 录用日期: 2024-09-26
- 网络出版日期: 2024-09-26

An empirical study on the impact of agricultural digitalization on fertilizer utilization efficiency

WANG Huimin,
ZHU Jianjun^,

School of Economics and Management, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271000, China

Funds: This work was supported by the Humanities and Social Sciences Research Planning Fund of the Ministry of Education (21YJA790085) and the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (ZR2021MG051).

More Information

Corresponding author:
ZHU Jianjun: E-mail: njzhujianjun@163.com

摘要

摘要:
提高化肥利用效率是促进化肥施用减量的重要途径, 而农业数字化为持续提高化肥利用效率提供了新的思路。本文基于全国30个省(市、区) 2012—2021年的面板数据, 分别采用全局参比的非期望产出SBM模型和熵值法对化肥利用效率和农业数字化水平进行测度, 在此基础上, 利用面板Tobit模型、中介效应模型实证分析农业数字化对化肥利用效率的影响及其作用路径。结果显示: 2019年以来我国农业数字化发展较快, 但发展水平存在明显的区域差异, 东部地区高于全国平均水平, 中西部地区低于全国水平; 基准回归结果表明, 农业数字化在1%的水平上显著提高了化肥利用效率, 且经过内生性处理及稳健性检验后, 结论依然成立; 机制检验发现, 农业数字化通过扩大农地经营规模、促进农业社会化服务发展以及绿色技术使用来提升化肥利用效率; 异质性分析表明, 农业数字化在非粮食主产区与西部地区对化肥利用效率具有显著的正向影响, 但在粮食主产区、东部和中部地区影响不显著。
- 农业数字化 /
- 化肥利用效率 /
- 作用路径 /
- 异质性分析
Abstract:
Improving the efficiency of fertilizer use is an important way to promote a reduction in fertilizer use, and agricultural digitalization provides a new perspective for continuously improving fertilizer use efficiency. Based on panel data from 30 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in China from 2012 to 2021, this paper uses the non-expected output SBM model with global reference and entropy method to measure the efficiency of fertilizer use and the level of agricultural digitalization. On this basis, the paper uses panel Tobit model and mediating effect model to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural digitalization on fertilizer use efficiency and its path of action. The results showed that agricultural digitalization has developed rapidly in China since 2019, but there are obvious regional differences in development level, with the eastern region being higher than the national average and the middle and western regions being lower; the benchmark regression results showed that agricultural digitalization significantly improves fertilizer use efficiency at the 1% level, and the conclusion remains valid after the endogeneity treatment and robustness test; the mechanism test showed that agricultural digitalization improves fertilizer use efficiency by expanding the scale of agricultural land operation, promoting the development of agricultural socialized services, and using green technologies; the heterogeneity analysis showed that agricultural digitalization has a significant positive impact on fertilizer use efficiency in non-grain producing areas and western regions, but has no significant impact in grain producing areas, the eastern and central regions. Therefore, we should continue to play a positive role in improving fertilizer use efficiency through agricultural digitalization, promote the transformation of agriculture in rural areas, improve the platform of land transfer market, promote the development of agricultural socialized services, strengthen the promotion and training of green technologies, and provide impetus for better playing the mediating.
- Agricultural Digitalization /
- Fertilizer Utilization Efficiency /
- Action Path /
- Heterogeneity Analysis

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图 1 2012—2021年全国和三大地区农业数字化水平变化趋势

Figure 1. Trend of agricultural digitalization level in China and the three major regions from 2012 to 2021

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表 1 化肥利用效率测算指标

Table 1 Fertilizer utilization efficiency calculation indicators

指标类别 Indicator Category	变量名称 Variable Name	指标名称 Indicator name	评价指标 Evaluation indicators	单位 Unit
投入指标 Input indicator	劳动投入 Labor Input	劳动力投入 Labor Input	农业就业人数 Number of people employed in agriculture	万人 10³ person
	土地投入 Land input	土地投入 Land input	农作物播种面积 Crop planting area	10³ hm²
	资本投入 Capital investment	机械动力投入 Mechanical power input	农业机械总动力 Total power of agricultural machinery	10⁴ kWh
		化肥施用量 Fertilizer application	农业化肥施用折纯量 Pure amount of agricultural fertilizer application	10³ t
		农药使用量 Pesticide usage	农药使用量 Pesticide usage	10³ t
		农膜使用量 Agricultural film usage	农膜使用量 Agricultural film usage	10³ t
	能源投入 Energy input	农业柴油投入 Agricultural diesel input	农业使用柴油量 Diesel consumption in agriculture	10³ t
	能源投入 Energy input	农业用水投入 Agricultural water input	农业有效灌溉面积 Effective agricultural irrigation area	10³ hm²
产出指标 Output indicator	期望产出 Expected Output	农业总产值 Total agricultural output	农业总产值(平减后) Total agricultural output value (deflated)	10⁹ ¥
	非期望产出 Unexpected Output	农业碳排放 Agricultural carbon emissions	农业碳排放量及转化碳排放量 Agricultural carbon emissions and conversion carbon emissions	10³ t
	非期望产出 Unexpected Output	农业面源污染 Agricultural non-point source pollution	总氮、总磷流失量 Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loss	10³ t

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表 2 农业数字化评价指标体系

Table 2 Agricultural digitalization evaluation index system

一级指标 Primary index	二级指标 Secondary index	三级指标 Tertiary index
农业数字化 Agricultural digitalization	数字基础设施 Digital Infrastructure	农村地区每百户移动电话拥有量 Number of mobile phones per 100 households in rural areas
		农村地区每百户计算机拥有量 Number of computers per 100 households in rural areas
		农村地区每万人宽带接入户数 Number of households with broadband access per 10,000 people in rural areas
	数字应用水平 Digital application level	淘宝村数量 Number of Taobao villages
		数字农业企业数量 Number of digital agriculture enterprises
		数字普惠金融总指数 Digital Financial Inclusion Index
	数字技术创新 Technological innovation	数字农业企业发明专利授权数量 Number of invention patents authorized by digital agricultural enterprises
		数字农业企业实用新型专利授权数量 Number of utility model patents granted to digital agricultural enterprises
		数字农业企业外观专利授权数量 Number of authorized appearance patents for digital agricultural enterprises

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表 3 变量定义与描述性统计

Table 3 Variable definitions and descriptive statistics

变量类别 Variable Category	变量名称 Variable Name	变量定义 Variable definitions	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
被解释变量 Explained variable	化肥利用效率 Fertilizer use efficiency	通过测算得到 Obtained through calculation (%)	50.21	0.273
解释变量 Explanatory variable	农业数字化 Agricultural digitalization	构建指标体系测算农业数字化水平 Constructing an indicator system to measure the level of agricultural digitalization	0.122	0.111
中介变量 Mediating variable	经营规模 Business Scale	农作物播种面积/农业就业人数 Crop planting area (1,000 hectares) / agricultural employment (10,000 people)	5.130	4.326
	社会化服务 Social Services	农业服务业产值/农作物播种面积 Output value of agricultural services (10,000 yuan) / crop planting area (1000 hectares)	2.876	2.321
	绿色技术采纳 Green Technology Adoption	绿色农业合作社数在农业合作社中的比重 The proportion of green agricultural cooperatives in agricultural cooperatives (%)	5.881	3.875
控制变量 Control variable	受灾率 Disaster rate	农作物受灾面积/农作物总播种面积 Area of crops affected by disasters/total sown area of crops (%)	13.925	11.236
	有效灌溉率 Effective irrigation rate	有效灌溉面积/农作物总播种面积 Effective irrigation area/total sown area of crops (%)	44.321	18.174
	种植业价格 Plantation prices	种植业产品价格指数(以2012年为基期) Price index of crop products (based on 2012)	101.697	9.230
	农业财政支出 Agricultural fiscal expenditure	农林水事务支出/财政支出 Agriculture, forestry and water affairs expenditure / fiscal expenditure (%)	11.491	3.412
	农村居民收入 Income	农村居民人均可支配收入取对数 Logarithm of per capita disposable income of rural residents (yuan)	9.451	0.391
	粮食面积占比 Proportion of grain area	粮食播种面积占农作物播种面积的比值 Ratio of grain planting area to crop planting area (%)	65.763	14.812
	非农就业情况 Non-agricultural employment	(乡村就业-农业就业)/乡村就业人数 (Rural employment−agricultural employment)/rural employment (%)	42.062	21.634

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表 4 农业数字化对化肥利用效率的影响

Table 4 Effect of agricultural digitization on fertilizer utilization efficiency

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	混合Tobit Mixed Tobit	面板Tobit Panel Tobit	面板Tobit Panel Tobit	面板Tobit Panel Tobit
农业数字化 Agricultural digitalization	0.775^***	1.876^***	0.758^***	0.758^**
农业数字化 Agricultural digitalization	(0.189)	(0.478)	(0.248)	(0.345)
受灾率 Disaster rate	−0.338^**		−0.238^*	−0.238^*
受灾率 Disaster rate	(0.132)		(0.109)	(0.123)
有效灌溉率 Effective irrigation rate	−0.167		−0.075	−0.075
有效灌溉率 Effective irrigation rate	(0.148)		(0.334)	(0.297)
种植业价格 Plantation prices	0.004^**		0.004^***	0.004^***
种植业价格 Plantation prices	(0.002)		(0.001)	(0.001)
农业财政支出 Agricultural fiscal expenditure	1.835^***		0.538	0.538
农业财政支出 Agricultural fiscal expenditure	(0.750)		(0.829)	(0.970)
农村居民收入 Rural income	0.245^***		0.386^***	0.386^**
农村居民收入 Rural income	(0.078)		(0.085)	(0.097)
粮食面积占比 Proportion of grain area	−0.318^***		−0.458^**	−0.447^*
粮食面积占比 Proportion of grain area	(0.113)		(0.257)	(0.285)
非农就业情况 Non-agricultural employment	−0.391^***		−0.180	−0.180
非农就业情况 Non-agricultural employment	(0.104)		(0.175)	(0.168)
系数 coefficient	−1.657^**	0.291^***	−3.242^***	−3.242^***
系数 coefficient	(0.730)	(0.045)	(0.763)	(0.860)
样本量 Sample size	300	300	300	300
LR		65.84^***	68.59^***	68.59^***
: P<0.1; : P<0.05; **: P<0.01。

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表 5 农业数字化对化肥利用效率影响的内生性及稳健性检验结果

Table 5 Endogeneity and robustness test results of the impact of agricultural digitalization on fertilizer utilization efficiency

	(1) 农业数字化(第一阶段) Agricultural digitalization (The first stage)	(2) 化肥利用效率(第二阶段) Fertilizer use efficiency (The second stage)	(3) 化肥利用效率(缩尾1%) Fertilizer use efficiency (1% reduction)	(4) 化肥利用效率(缩尾5%) Fertilizer use efficiency (5% reduction)	(5) 化肥利用效率(无直辖市) Fertilizer use efficiency (No municipalities)
农业数字化		0.545^*	0.794^***	1.210^***	0.628^**
Agricultural digitalization		(0.123)	(3.345)	(3.544)	(2.313)
农业数字化滞后一期	1.220^***
Agricultural digitalization is lagging behind	(0.016)
内生性检验 Endogeneity test		0.222^***
控制变量 Control variables	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
样本量 Sample size	270	270	300	300	260
: P<0.1; : P<0.05; **: P<0.01。

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表 6 农业数字化对化肥利用效率影响的机制检验结果

Table 6 Mechanism test results of the impact of agricultural digitalization on fertilizer utilization efficiency

	(1) 经营规模 Business Scale	(2) 化肥利用效率 Fertilizer use efficiency	(3) 社会化服务 Social Services	(4) 化肥利用效率 Fertilizer use efficiency	(5) 绿色技术采纳 Green Technology adoption	(6) 化肥利用效率 Fertilizer use efficiency
农业数字化	0.199^***	1.080^***	0.042^***	1.171^***	0.041^*	0.549^**
Agricultural digitalization	(0.024)	(0.307)	(0.007)	(0.261)	(0.010)	(0.275)
经营规模		1.016^**
Business Scale		(0.500)
社会化服务				3.866^***
Social Services				(0.931)
绿色技术采纳						1.960^***
Green Technology adoption						(0.599)
控制变量 Control variables	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
样本量 Sample size	270	270	270	270	270	270
: P<0.1; : P<0.05; **: P<0.01。除了第(1)、(3)列采用xtreg模型, 其余均采用xttobit模型。Except for columns (1) and (3) which use the xtreg model, the rest use the xttobit model.

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表 7 异质性分析结果

Table 7 Heterogeneity analysis results

	(1) 粮食主产区 Major grain producing areas	(2) 非粮食主产区 Non-grain producing areas	(3) 东部 East	(4) 中部 Central	(5) 西部 West
农业数字化	−0.159	0.571^**	0.406	1.236	2.771^*
Agricultural digitalization	(0.620)	(0.249)	(0.267)	(1.011)	(2.305)
控制变量 Control variables	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
样本量 Sample size	117	153	99	72	99
: P<0.1; : P<0.05; **: P<0.01。

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