Decoupling effects and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing
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摘要:
在“双碳”目标背景下, 探究重庆三峡库区农业碳排放特征及其驱动因素, 可为库区低碳农业发展提供科学依据。采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的因子法测算2015—2022年重庆三峡库区农业碳排放量, 系统分析库区农业碳排放量和强度时空分异特征, 利用Tapio脱钩模型分析库区农业碳排放量与农业经济增长的脱钩关系, 并进一步运用LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)模型解析库区农业碳排放驱动因素。结果表明: 重庆三峡库区农业碳排放总量整体呈波动降低趋势, 农业碳排放总量从2015年的645.89万t降低至2022年的620.74万t, 库区农业碳排放主要来源为农田土壤碳排放和畜禽养殖碳排放。库区农业碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势, 各区县间碳排放强度差距逐渐缩小。2015—2022年库区农业经济与农业碳排放量脱钩关系整体上呈脱钩关系。随着农业生产的恢复与发展, 农业产值增长, 农业碳排放量增加。 脱钩关系以2019年为节点表现为由强脱钩向弱脱钩转变。农业生产效率、农业人口规模、农业产业结构对库区农业碳排放量的增长具有抑制作用, 而农业经济规模对农业碳排放量的增长则具有促进作用。基于以上结果, 本文提出减少禽畜养殖业碳排放量、控制农田土地利用碳排放量和发挥农业碳排放驱动因素抑制作用等相关建议, 以期为库区低碳农业发展提供理论依据。
Abstract:Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, exploring the characteristics of agricultural carbon emission and its driving factors in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area can provide scientific basis for the development of low-carbon agriculture in the reservoir area. Using the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission factor measurement method, The agricultural carbon emissions in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area during 2015-2022 were calculated, the temporal and spatial differences of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emission intensity in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area were systematically analyzed, and the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area was analyzed using the Tapio decoupling model. Furthermore, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model is applied to analyze the driving factors of agricultural carbon emission in the Three Gorges reservoir area of Chongqing. The results show that: The total agricultural carbon emission in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed an overall trend of fluctuation reduction, and the total agricultural carbon emission decreased from 6.4589 million tons in 2015 to 6.2074 million tons in 2022. The main source of agricultural carbon emission in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area was carbon emission caused by soil utilization in the process of crop planting. Carbon emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management processes in livestock and poultry farming. The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing showed a decreasing trend, and the gap of carbon emission intensity among the districts and counties in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing gradually narrowed. The decoupling relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing from 2015 to 2022 shows a decoupling relationship on the whole. With the recovery and development of agricultural production, the total value of agricultural production has increased, and agricultural carbon emissions have rebounded. The decoupling relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions changes from strong decoupling relationship to weak decoupling relationship with 2019 as the node performance. Factors such as agricultural production efficiency, agricultural population scale and agricultural industrial structure inhibit the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing, while agricultural economic scale factors promote the growth of agricultural carbon emissions. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions such as focusing on reducing carbon emissions from livestock and poultry farming, controlling carbon emissions from farmland soil utilization, and exerting the inhibition effect of agricultural production efficiency, agricultural population size and agricultural industrial structure on agricultural carbon emissions in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area, hoping to provide theoretical basis for the development of low-carbon agriculture in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
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图 2 2015—2022年重庆三峡库区农业碳排放组成及单位农业产值碳排放强度变化
Figure 2. Changes of the composition and intensity of carbon emissions from agricultural production system in the Three Gorges Reservoir of Chongqing from 2015 to 2022
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图 3 重庆三峡库区县域农业碳排放量空间分布格局
Figure 3. Spatial distribution patterns of agricultural carbon emissions at county level in the Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing
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图 4 重庆三峡库区县域农业碳排放强度空间分布格局
Figure 4. Spatial distribution patterns of agricultural carbon emission intensity at county level in the Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing
表 1 种植业碳排放系数及数据来源
Table 1 Carbon emission factor and data source for crop system
农业物资投入 Agricultural material input 农田土壤利用 Farmland utilization 碳源
Carbon source对应指标
Corresponding indicator碳排放系数
Carbon emission factor数据来源
Data sources碳源
Carbon source碳排放系数
Carbon emission factor数据来源
Data sources化肥
Chemical fertilizer化肥施用量
Fertilizer application rate0.8956
kg(C)∙kg−1美国橡树岭国家实验室[2]
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA中季稻
Mid-season Rice257.3
kg(CH4)∙hm−2[6] 农药
Pesticides农药使用量
Pesticide use amount4.93416
kg(C)∙kg−10.24
kg(N2O)∙hm−2农膜
Agricultural plastic film农用塑料薄膜使用量
Agricultural plastic film use amount5.186
kg(C)∙kg−1政府间气候变化专门委员会[12]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change冬小麦
Winter
wheat1.75
kg(N2O)∙hm−2[6] 农机
Agricultural machinery农作物播种面积
Sown area of crops16.47
kg(C)∙hm−2[25] 大豆
Soybean0.77
kg(N2O)∙hm−2[26] 农业机械总动力
Gross power of agricultural machinery0.18
kg(C)∙kW−1玉米
Maize2.532
kg(N2O)∙hm−2[6] 灌溉
Irrigation有效灌溉面积
Actual irrigated area of crops20.476
kg(C)∙hm−2湖北农村发展研究中心[4] Hubei Rural Development Research Center 蔬菜
Vegetables4.944
kg(N2O)∙hm−2[6] 翻耕
Ploughing农作物播种面积
Sown area of crops3.126
kg(C)∙hm−2[4] 农业机械使用碳排放: 农作物播种面积×对应碳排放系数+农业机械总动力×对应碳排放系数。Carbon emissions from agricultural machinery: sown area of crops × corresponding carbon emission factor + gross power of agricultural machinery × corresponding carbon emission factor. 
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表 2 畜禽养殖业碳排放系数和数据来源
Table 2 Carbon emission factor and data source for livestock system
动物类型
Animal type肠道发酵
Enteric fermentation
kg(CH4)∙head−1∙a−1粪便管理 Manure management system 数据来源
Data sourcekg(CH4)∙head−1∙a−1 kg(N2O)∙head−1∙a−1 牛 Cattle 47.8 1 1.39 [7] 猪 Pig 1 3.5 0.53 羊 Sheep & goat 5 0.16 0.33 家禽 Poultry — 0.02 0.02
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表 3 脱钩状态判别
Table 3 Decoupling state discrimination
类别
Type脱钩状态
Decoupling state环境压力
Environmental pressure
(∆C/C)经济增长
Economic growth
(∆GDPA/GDPA)脱钩弹性
Decoupling
elasticity
(e)含义
Meaning[1]负脱钩
Negative
decoupling扩张负脱钩
Expansion of negative decoupling＞0 ＞0 e＞1.2 经济增长, 环境压力大幅增长
With economic growth, environmental pressure has increased强负脱钩
Strong negative decoupling＞0 ＜0 e＜0 经济衰退, 环境压力增加
With the economic recession, environmental pressures increase弱负脱钩
Weak negative decoupling＜0 ＜0 0＜e＜0.8 经济衰退, 环境压力缓慢衰退
With the economic recession, environmental pressures slowly recede脱钩
Decoupling弱脱钩
Weak decoupling＞0 ＞0 0＜e＜0.8 经济增长, 环境压力缓慢增长
With economic growth, environmental pressure grows slowly强脱钩
Strong decoupling＜0 ＞0 e＜0 经济增长, 环境压力减少
With economic growth, environmental pressure decreases衰退脱钩
Recessive decoupling＜0 ＜0 e＞1.2 经济衰退, 环境压力大幅衰退
With the economic recession, environmental pressures receded dramatically连接
Connection增长连接
Expansion connection＞0 ＞0 0.8＜e＜1.2 经济增长, 环境压力中速增加
With economic growth, environmental pressure is increasing at a moderate speed衰退连接
Recession connection＜0 ＜0 0.8＜e＜1.2 经济衰退, 环境压力大幅减少
With the economic recession, environmental pressures have greatly diminished
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表 4 重庆三峡库区农业碳排放量与农业经济增长脱钩特征
Table 4 Characteristics of the decoupling of agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing
年份 Year ∆C/C ∆GDP/GDP 脱钩弹性
Decoupling elasticity脱钩状态
Decoupling state2015 −0.0128 0.0534 −0.2396 强脱钩 Strong decoupling 2016 −0.0171 0.0768 −0.2223 强脱钩 Strong decoupling 2017 −0.0176 0.1124 −0.1564 强脱钩 Strong decoupling 2018 −0.0401 0.0244 −1.6409 强脱钩 Strong decoupling 2019 −0.0313 −0.0018 17.6886 衰退脱钩 Recessive decoupling 2020 0.0033 0.1377 0.0240 弱脱钩 Weak decoupling 2021 0.0451 0.1827 0.2467 弱脱钩 Weak decoupling 2022 0.0152 0.0309 0.4915 弱脱钩 Weak decoupling ∆C/C: 农业碳排放量变化量/农业碳排放量; ∆GDP/GDP: 农业产值变化量/农业产值。∆C/C: changes in agricultural carbon emissions / agricultural carbon emissions ; ∆GDP/GDP: changes in agricultural output value / agricultural output value .
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表 5 重庆三峡库区农业碳排放驱动因素分解结果
Table 5 Decomposition results of driving factors of carbon emission from agriculture in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing
年份
Year生产效率
Production efficiency产业结构
Industrial structure经济规模
Economic scale人口规模
Population size总效应
Total effect2015 −61.2701 −2.7953 59.6263 −3.8208 −8.2600 2016 −88.6756 −1.9935 84.8473 −5.0281 −10.8499 2017 −15.7065 −8.4844 24.2535 −11.0402 −10.9777 2018 −30.8302 −9.8582 31.7039 −15.0665 −24.0510 2019 −101.3626 3.5991 85.7640 −6.1827 −18.1821 2020 −98.7464 6.0945 100.3263 −5.7418 1.9326 2021 0.6364 −17.2327 52.7598 −8.6024 27.5611 2022 −18.6466 0.1283 33.0645 −5.1267 9.4195 累计贡献度
Cumulative contribution−414.6016 −30.5422 472.3456 −60.6092 −33.4074
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