Environmental regulation and green transformation of agriculture in China: help or resistance?
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摘要:
严格且恰当的环境规制是推动农业绿色转型的重要保障。本文基于2005—2022年省级面板数据, 从绿色全要素生产率视角出发, 实证检验环境规制对农业绿色转型的影响, 并重点分析该影响的异质性及其背后的作用机制。研究发现: 1)环境规制对农业绿色转型具有显著的正“U”型影响, 当前绝大多数省份的环境规制强度都未越过促进农业绿色转型的“U”型拐点。2)环境规制主要通过提高绿色技术效率实现整体农业绿色全要素生产率的增长, 并且相较于绿色全要素生产率, 绿色技术效率可以更早突破“U”型拐点。3)机制检验发现, 环境规制可以通过激发农业实质性绿色技术创新的非线性机制和降低农业生产中劳动力要素错配的线性机制, 推动农业绿色转型。4)异质性分析表明, 环境规制对农业绿色转型的非线性影响仅在中西部地区和农业绿色发展水平高的省份显著, 对于东部地区和农业绿色发展水平低的省份均无显著影响。本文建议, 在合理范围内适度加大农业环境规制强度, 尽快完善绿色技术创新导向的环境规制政策, 同时根据不同地区农业面源污染程度和农业绿色发展实际, 因地制宜地制定差异化的环境规制强度。
Abstract:Strict and appropriate environmental regulations are a crucial guarantee for promoting the green transformation of agriculture. In recent years, the Chinese government has stepped up the construction of agricultural environmental regulations in response to increasing agricultural non-point source pollution; however, it remains uncertain whether these regulations can fully realize their intended effects. Using provincial panel data from 2005 to 2022, this paper uses green total factor productivity (TFP) as a measure to assess the degree of agricultural green transition. It empirically examines the impact of environmental regulations on agricultural green transition from the perspective of regulatory intensity, while also exploring the heterogeneity of this impact and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that: 1) Environmental regulation exerts a significant positive “U”-shaped effect on agricultural green transformation; specifically, as the intensity of environmental regulations increases from weak to strong, there is a nonlinear effect on agricultural green TFP — initially inhibiting growth before eventually promoting it. This conclusion holds true after addressing endogeneity concerns and conducting various robustness checks. 2) Calculations indicate that the intensity of environmental regulations in most provinces has not yet crossed the “U” inflection point necessary to promote agricultural green transition, suggesting that policy constraints remain relatively lenient. 3) Environmental regulation enhances overall green TFP growth primarily through improvements in green technical efficiency, and green technical efficiency can surpass the “U” inflection point earlier than green TFP. 4) The mechanism test indicates that environmental regulation promotes agricultural green transformation via both a nonlinear mechanism of stimulating agricultural substantive green technology innovation and a linear mechanism of reducing the misallocation of labor factors within agriculture. 5) The heterogeneity analysis indicates that environmental regulation has a significant positive “U”-shaped impact on agricultural green transformation exclusively in the central and western regions, while its impact is insignificant in the eastern regions. In provinces characterized by medium and high levels of agricultural green development, environmental regulation demonstrates a significant positive “U”-shaped influence on their agricultural green transformation, while the effect is insignificant in provinces with low levels of agricultural green development. The research conclusions of this paper imply the following policy implications. Firstly, it is essential to moderately increase the intensity of agricultural environmental regulations within reasonable limits. This approach aims to force producers to enhance their awareness of green agriculture, actively participate in green production, and reach the turning point of the ‘U’-shaped curve swiftly. Secondly, improve the environmental regulation policy oriented to green technology innovation, so as to encourage and support entities engaged in technological innovation to actively develop green agricultural production technologies, and guide farmers to accept and apply green production technologies, thereby forming a closed cycle of for green technology innovation in agriculture as soon as possible. Finally, the intensity of environmental regulations should be adjusted according to the degree of agricultural non-point source pollution and the actual situation of green agricultural development in different regions. For regions with more severe agricultural non-point source pollution and lower levels of green agricultural development, the intensity of environmental regulations should be increased appropriately. For regions with higher levels of green agricultural development and relatively lighter agricultural non-point source pollution, under the premise of maintaining sufficient regulatory strength to ensure good environmental quality, the intensity of environmental regulations can be appropriately reduced so as not to hinder the agricultural green transition due to excessively high levels of environmental regulation.
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图 1 环境规制对农业绿色转型影响的分析框架
Figure 1. Analytical framework for the impact of environmental regulation on agricultural green transformation
表 1 变量定义与描述统计
Table 1 Variable definition and descriptive statistics
变量类型
Variable type变量名称
Variable name变量定义
Variable definition均值
Mean标准差
Standard deviation被解释变量
Explained variable农业绿色转型
Agricultural green transformation利用DDF-GML指数测算出农业GTFP, 并将其转换为以2005年为基期的累计增长率, 取对数
The agricultural GTFP calculated using the DDF-GML index, and converted into a cumulative grow rate with a base period of 2005, then take the logarithm0.054 0.119 核心解释变量
Core explanatory variable环境规制
Environmental regulation农业面源污染物相对排放水平的倒数
The reciprocal of the relative emission level of agricultural non-point source pollutant1.783 0.883 控制变量
Control variable自然灾害率
Natural disaster rate农作物受灾面积/总播种面积
Affected crop area / total sown area0.182 0.144 耕地灌溉率
Cropland irrigation rate耕地灌溉面积/农作物总播种面积
Irrigated farmland area / total sown area0.438 0.189 种植业产值比重
Proportion of planting industry output value种植业产值/农林牧渔业总产值
Output value of planting industry / gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery0.521 0.086 粮食种植面积比重
Proportion of grain sown area粮食作物播种面积/农作物总播种面积
Grain sown area / total crop sown area0.653 0.135 农村人力资本
Rural human capital农村人口平均受教育年限
Average education duration of rural residents (a)7.642 0.831 工业化率
Industrialization rate工业增加值/地区生产总值
Industrial added value / regional GDP0.383 0.129 财政支农力度
Fiscal support for agriculture农林水支出/地方一般公共预算支出
Expenditure for agriculture, forestry, and water conservancy / general public expenditure0.106 0.037 农业对外开放
Agricultural opening up农产品进出口总额/农林牧渔业总产值
Total value of agricultural imports and exports / gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery0.331 1.029 地权稳定性
Tenure security是否被列入整省推进土地确权试点: 是=1, 否=0
Whether it has been included in the province-wide land titling pilot program: Yes=1, and No=00.396 0.490 机制变量
Mechanism variable农业绿色技术创新
Agricultural green technology innovation每万人农业绿色专利申请量
Agricultural green patents application number per 10 000 persons (piece·104 persons)0.034 0.039 每万人农业绿色发明专利申请量
Agricultural green invention patent application number per 10 000 persons (piece·104 persons)0.031 0.037 每万人农业绿色实用新型专利申请量
Agricultural green utility model application number per 10 000 persons (piece·104 persons)0.003 0.004 农业生产要素错配
Misallocation of agricultural factors劳动力要素错配指数
Misallocation index of labor factor1.690 3.487 资本要素错配指数
Misallocation index of capital factor2.103 3.855 土地要素错配指数
Misallocation index of land factor9.306 39.421 
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表 2 基准回归结果
Table 2 Benchmark regression results
解释变量
Explanatory variable模型1
Model 1 (GTFP)模型2
Model 2 (GTFP)模型3
Model 3 (GTFP)模型4
Model 4 (GTPC)模型5
Model 5 (GTEC)模型6
Model 6 (GSEC)环境规制
Environmental regulation−0.092***
(0.015)−0.067***
(0.010)−0.069***
(0.010)−0.019
(0.034)−0.068**
(0.028)0.017
(0.022)环境规制平方
Square of environmental regulation0.013***
(0.002)0.009***
(0.002)0.009***
(0.002)−0.002
(0.008)0.014**
(0.007)−0.003
(0.006)控制变量
Control variableNo Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 省份固定效应
Provincial fixed effectsYes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 年份固定效应
Year fixed effectsNo No Yes Yes Yes Yes R2 0.232 0.553 0.257 0.035 0.077 0.055 N 558 558 558 558 558 558 拐点值 Value of inflection point 3.539 3.722 3.833 — 2.429 — GTFP: 绿色全要素生产率; GTPC: 绿色技术进步变化; GTEC: 绿色技术效率变化; GSEC: 绿色规模效率变化; **: P<5%; ***: P<1%。GTFP: green total factor productivity; GTPC: green technological progress change; GTEC: green technical efficiency change; GSEC: green scale efficiency change; **: P<5%; ***: P<1%.
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表 3 内生性与稳健性检验结果
Table 3 Results of endogeneity and robustness test
解释变量
Explanatory variable模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2模型3
Model 3模型4
Model 4模型5
Model 5模型6
Model 6环境规制
Environmental regulation−0.056***
(0.014)−0.113***
(0.019)−0.086***
(0.010)−0.134***
(0.024)−0.064***
(0.016)环境规制平方
Square of environmental regulation0.009**
(0.004)0.023***
(0.005)0.014***
(0.002)0.021***
(0.005)0.008**
(0.003)滞后一期环境规制
Environmental regulation lagged one period−0.060***
(0.011)滞后一期环境规制平方
Square of environmental regulation lagged one period0.010***
(0.003)控制变量
Control variableYes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 省份/年份固定效应
Provincial / year fixed effectsYes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Breusch-Pagan检验P值
Breusch-Pagan test P value0.000 Hansen J检验P值
Hansen J test P value0.464 R2 0.572 0.273 0.268 0.191 0.229 0.245 N 558 558 558 558 527 465 **: P<5%; ***: P<1%。
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表 4 影响机制检验结果
Table 4 Results of impact mechanism test
解释变量
Explanatory variable农业绿色技术创新
Agricultural green technology innovation农业生产要素错配
Misallocation of agricultural factors模型1 (总量)
Model 1 (total)模型2 (实质性)
Model 2 (substantive)模型3 (策略性)
Model 3 (strategic)模型4 (资本)
Model 4 (capital)模型5 (土地)
Model 5 (land)模型6 (劳动力)
Model 6 (labor)环境规制
Environmental regulation−0.436**
(0.222)−0.417*
(0.233)−0.337
(0.386)−0.536
(2.621)1.120
(0.756)−1.540*
(0.802)环境规制平方
Square of environmental regulation0.063**
(0.031)0.063**
(0.031)0.044
(0.067)−0.157
(0.323)-0.016
(0.092)0.140
(0.086)控制变量
Control variableYes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 省份/年份固定效应
Provincial / year fixed effectsYes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes R2 0.112 0.115 0.086 0.386 0.101 0.061 N 558 558 558 558 558 558 *: P<10%; **: P<5%。
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表 5 分区域异质性检验结果
Table 5 Regional heterogeneity test results
解释变量 Explanatory variable 东部地区 Eastern region 中西部地区 Middle and western region 环境规制 Environmental regulation −0.167(0.147) −0.050***(0.007) 环境规制平方 Square of environmental regulation 0.213(0.258) 0.006***(0.002) 控制变量 Control variable Yes Yes 省份/年份固定效应 Provincial / year fixed effects Yes Yes R2 0.234 0.475 N 198 360 拐点值 Value of inflection point — 4.167 ***: P<1%。
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表 6 不同绿色发展水平异质性检验结果
Table 6 Results of the heterogeneity test for different levels of green development
解释变量 Explanatory variable 分位点 Quantile 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 环境规制
Environmental regulation−0.054
(0.045)−0.014
(0.017)−0.043***
(0.009)−0.088***
(0.012)−0.173***
(0.033)环境规制平方
Square of environmental regulation0.008
(0.007)−0.001
(0.003)0.005***
(0.002)0.013***
(0.003)0.029***
(0.007)控制变量
Control variableYes Yes Yes Yes Yes 省份/年份固定效应
Provincial / year fixed effectsYes Yes Yes Yes Yes R2 0.029 0.047 0.108 0.162 0.221 N 558 558 558 558 558 拐点值 Value of inflection point — — 4.303 3.385 2.983 ***: P<1%。
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