Abstract:The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report indicated that human-induced climate change has already affected many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Greenhouse gases (GHG) produced via the process of agricultural production constitute a large proportion of the total GHG emissions from worldwide production activities. Therefore, estimation of agricultural GHG emissions, analysis of the influencing factors, and prediction of the peak are important. Based on the classical IPCC carbon emission calculation theory, agricultural carbon emissions were estimated for Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020 by using agricultural material input, livestock and poultry breeding, and agricultural soil utilization. The influence factor decomposition was conducted based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), and the agricultural carbon emissions from 2021 to 2045 were predicted by using the grey model GM (1, 1). Results showed that the total agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province in 2020 were 1.58×10 ⁷t and the intensity of carbon emissions was 0.205 t·(10 ⁴¥) ⁻¹. Carbon emissions tended to increase from 2000 to 2006 and then decrease from 2007 to 2020; however, the intensity of carbon emissions decreased at an annual rate of 3.8%. The source structure of agricultural carbon emissions was ranked, with agricultural material input, livestock and poultry breeding, and crop farming accounting for 49.6%, 38.5%, and 11.9%, respectively. Carbon emissions and intensities showed regional differences between the 16 cities and tended to increase. Carbon emissions and the intensity of carbon emissions in Heze were higher than those of other cities. The LMDI decomposition results showed that agricultural production efficiency, agricultural industrial structure, regional industrial structure, and rural population were emission reduction factors, whereas regional economic development level and urbanization were emission growth factors. The prediction results showed that agricultural carbon emission of Shandong Province would reach its peak before 2030, and carbon emissions of cities, such as Jinan, Qingdao, Zibo, Weifang, Jining, Tai’an, Weihai, Rizhao, and Liaocheng, would also reach their peaks before 2030. However, the prediction result showed that the agricultural carbon emissions in Zaozhuang, Dongying, Yantai, Linyi, Dezhou, Binzhou, and Heze did not reach their peaks before 2030. Therefore, suggestions for agricultural carbon emission reduction in Shandong Province were put forward.