崔成, 刘园, 刘布春, 孙彦坤, 杨凡, 张晓男, 邱美娟. ENSO事件对山东苹果生产的影响Ⅰ: 不同年型下苹果气候资源及产量的变化研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2022, 30(10): 1659−1674. DOI:10.12357/cjea.20210925
引用本文: 崔成, 刘园, 刘布春, 孙彦坤, 杨凡, 张晓男, 邱美娟. ENSO事件对山东苹果生产的影响Ⅰ: 不同年型下苹果气候资源及产量的变化研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2022, 30(10): 1659−1674.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20210925
CUI C, LIU Y, LIU B C, SUN Y K, YANG F, ZHANG X N, QIU M J. ENSO events impacts on apple production in Shandong Ⅰ: A study of changes in apple climatic resources and yields under different scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2022, 30(10): 1659−1674. DOI:10.12357/cjea.20210925
Citation: CUI C, LIU Y, LIU B C, SUN Y K, YANG F, ZHANG X N, QIU M J. ENSO events impacts on apple production in Shandong Ⅰ: A study of changes in apple climatic resources and yields under different scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2022, 30(10): 1659−1674.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20210925

ENSO事件对山东苹果生产的影响Ⅰ: 不同年型下苹果气候资源及产量的变化研究

ENSO events impacts on apple production in Shandong Ⅰ: A study of changes in apple climatic resources and yields under different scenarios

  • 摘要:厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)作为目前全球最强的海-气耦合系统之一, ENSO事件对我国气候资源, 甚至我国农业产生重要的影响。山东是我国苹果的优势主产区之一, 苹果产量的变化受限制于当地气候条件。分析在ENSO事件的影响下, 气候资源变化对当地苹果产量的影响具有重要意义。因此本文基于山东1991—2019年逐日气象观测数据、地市级苹果种植统计数据及ENSO数据, 分析在不同ENSO年型下山东苹果可生长期气候资源的时空变化特征, 并在此基础上探究苹果可生长期气候资源对当地苹果产量的影响。结果表明: 1)山东全省苹果种植面积呈先上升后下降的趋势, 总产和单产呈显著增加趋势; 苹果种植面积和总产量的重心由潍坊地区向胶东半岛移动, 单产重心在潍坊由中部向西南方向移动。2)不同ENSO年型下苹果可生长期气候资源与ENSO事件的相关性并不显著。在不同ENSO年型下苹果可生长期气候资源空间分布不均匀, 光照资源呈北多南少空间分布、热量资源呈西多东少分布; 而降水资源则呈南多北少分布。厄尔尼诺年光照资源、热量资源较为优越, 拉尼娜年、中性年降水资源较为优越。3)不同ENSO年型下苹果可生长期气候资源与苹果气象单产中, 热量资源与气象单产多呈负向关系, 对气象单产有一定制约影响; 而厄尔尼诺年、拉尼娜年降水资源与苹果气象单产呈正向关系, 中性年降水资源与苹果气象单产呈负相关。优越的气候资源对苹果生产的增收增益有促进作用。过量的气候资源会对苹果产量造成一定程度的抑制作用。未来需要关注在厄尔尼诺年下的高温、干旱等相关灾害, 拉尼娜年、中性年下的低温、洪涝灾害, 规避气象灾害所带来的影响, 保证当地苹果产业健康发展。

    Abstract:El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the strongest ocean-air coupling systems in the world. Furthermore, ENSO events have a major impact on climate resources and agriculture in China. Shandong is one of the major apple-producing areas in China. The variation in apple yield is affected by local climate conditions, cultivated varieties, and management. Analyzing the influence of climate change on local apple yield under the influence of ENSO events is of great significance. Therefore, based on the daily meteorological observation data, county-level apple planting statistical data in Shandong Province, and worldwide ENSO data from 1991 to 2019, the spatio-temporal variation in climate resources in the apple growing period in Shandong Province under different ENSO types were analyzed, and the impact of climate resources on local apple yield was explored. The results showed that: 1) the apple planting area in Shandong Province first increased and then decreased, while the total yield and yield per unit area increased significantly from 1991 to 2019. The center of gravity of the apple planting area and total output moved from Weifang to the Jiaodong Peninsula, while the center of gravity of the yield per unit area moved from the center to the southwest in Weifang. 2) There was no significant correlation between the climate resources and ENSO events in different ENSO years. The spatial distribution of the apple growing period climate resources was not uniform for different ENSO years. The light resources decreased from north to south, while the heat resources increased from east to west. The precipitation decreased from south to north. Light and heat resources were superior in El Niño years, and precipitation resources were superior in La Niña years and neutral years. 3) There was a negative relationship between the climatic resources and meteorological yield per unit area in different ENSO years, which restricted the apple meteorological yield per unit area to some extent. The precipitation resources in El Niño and La Niña years were positively correlated with the apple meteorological yield per unit area, while the precipitation resources in neutral years were negatively correlated with the apple meteorological yield per unit area. Superior climatic resources have a positive effect on apple production. Excessive climatic resources can cause a certain degree of inhibition of apple yield. In the future, it is necessary to focus on high temperature, drought, and other related disasters during El Niño years, low temperature and flood disasters in La Niña years and neutral years to avoid the impact of meteorological disasters and ensure the healthy development of the local apple industry.

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