孟晓, 田明华, 于法稳. 山东省农业现代化发展水平时空演化及影响因素研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2023, 31(8): 1194−1207. DOI:10.12357/cjea.20230030
引用本文: 孟晓, 田明华, 于法稳. 山东省农业现代化发展水平时空演化及影响因素研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2023, 31(8): 1194−1207.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20230030
MENG X, TIAN M H, YU F W. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2023, 31(8): 1194−1207. DOI:10.12357/cjea.20230030
Citation: MENG X, TIAN M H, YU F W. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2023, 31(8): 1194−1207.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20230030

山东省农业现代化发展水平时空演化及影响因素研究

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province

  • 摘要:农业现代化是建设现代化农业强国的必要条件, 探索农业现代化发展水平有利于加快推进农业现代化进程。文章测度山东省及其16地市农业现代化发展水平, 借助探索性空间数据分析法分析时空演化, 引入障碍度模型和空间计量模型探索内部制约因素和外部驱动因素。结果表明: 1) 2010—2020年山东省农业现代化发展水平和生产投入、产业经营、质量效益、绿色发展、农村社会子系统发展水平得分呈波动上升趋势, 其中产业经营子系统发展较快, 生产投入和质量效益子系统发展不稳定; 各地市农业现代化发展水平形成“高却不稳”和“低水平陷阱”分异, 多数地市内部结构逐渐均衡, 以经营引领和社会引领类型为主。2)农业现代化发展高水平等级集聚在东部沿海地区并向内陆地区扩张, 低水平等级集聚于鲁南5市。3)电气化水平制约80%以上地市农业现代化发展水平, 医疗条件制约多数农业现代化发展低水平的地市, 生产投入型制约因素逐渐转化为产业和产出型制约因素; 城镇化水平、科技水平、教育投入和经济发展水平都显著正向影响农业现代化发展水平, 科技水平、教育投入具有显著的空间溢出效应。因此, 应因地制宜发挥优势, 协调内部均衡发展, 加强区域合作交流, 减少内部因素制约并强化外部要素驱动及外溢效应。

    Abstract:China must achieve its goal of fully building modern socialist power by 2050. Agricultural power is the foundation of modern socialist power, and agricultural modernization is necessary for building modern agricultural power. Shandong Province is the first major agricultural province in China, with a total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries exceeding one trillion Yuan (valued at 1019.06 billion Yuan). Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province can help accelerate the development process of agricultural modernization, provide a scientific basis for realizing the transformation from a major agricultural province to a modern agricultural province, and provide a reference for development planning in other regions to achieve agricultural modernization. Existing researches neglect the heterogeneity analysis of the internal structure evolution and key constraints of the regional agricultural modernization development level, lack temporal and spatial analysis of the evolution of the agricultural modernization development level, and do not explore the external factors that affect the development level of agricultural modernization. This study used a multi-objective comprehensive measure to evaluate the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province and 16 cities, analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution using exploratory spatial data analysis methods, and introduced an obstacle model and a spatial econometric model to explore internal constraints and external drivers. The results show that: 1) The development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province and the scores of production inputs, industry and operation, output benefits, green development, and rural community subsystems showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2020, with the rapid development of industry and operation subsystems being prominent. However, the development of production inputs and output benefits subsystems was unstable. The development level of agricultural modernization in various regions and cities had formed differences between “high but unstable” and “low-level traps”. The internal structures of most regions and cities were gradually balanced with the main types of business and social leadership. 2) The spatial manifestation was significant spatial agglomerations. High levels of agricultural modernization development were concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and expand to inland areas, whereas low levels were gradually concentrated in the five cities of South Shandong. There was an abnormal spatial distribution at the junctions of the high- and low-level clusters. 3) The level of electrification restricted the development of agricultural modernization in more than 80% of the prefectures and cities, whereas medical conditions restricted most prefectures and cities with low levels of agricultural modernization. Input-type constraints gradually transformed into industrial- and output-type constraints; urbanization level, science and technology level, education investment, and economic development level all significantly and positively affected the development level of agricultural modernization, and science, technology, and education investment in addition to having significant spatial spillover effects. Therefore, it is necessary to take advantage of local conditions, coordinate internally balanced development, strengthen regional cooperation and exchange, reduce internal constraints, and strengthen external factors driving spillover effects.

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