徐蕊, 杨建玲, 刘静, 闫伟兄, 马国飞, 马珺玢. 宁夏枸杞生长季气候资源和主要气象灾害变化趋势及影响研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2023, 31(10): 1645−1656. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230102
引用本文: 徐蕊, 杨建玲, 刘静, 闫伟兄, 马国飞, 马珺玢. 宁夏枸杞生长季气候资源和主要气象灾害变化趋势及影响研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2023, 31(10): 1645−1656. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230102
XU R, YANG J L, LIU J, YAN W X, MA G F, MA J B. Trends and effects of agro-climatic resources and main meteorological disasters during Lycium barbarum L. growing seasons in Ningxia[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2023, 31(10): 1645−1656. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230102
Citation: XU R, YANG J L, LIU J, YAN W X, MA G F, MA J B. Trends and effects of agro-climatic resources and main meteorological disasters during Lycium barbarum L. growing seasons in Ningxia[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2023, 31(10): 1645−1656. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230102

宁夏枸杞生长季气候资源和主要气象灾害变化趋势及影响研究

Trends and effects of agro-climatic resources and main meteorological disasters during Lycium barbarum L. growing seasons in Ningxia

  • 摘要: 为了适应气候变化, 更高效利用区域农业气候资源, 趋利避害, 助力枸杞产业高质量发展, 本研究选取宁夏枸杞产区10个国家气象观测站1961—2021年气象资料, 评估了枸杞生育期主要气象因子的气候变化趋势, 研判了主要气象灾害的发生趋势及其对枸杞产业的可能影响。结果表明: 宁夏枸杞产区生育期的气温、高温日数均呈上升趋势, 近10年较20世纪60年代, 平均、最高、最低气温分别升高1.51 ℃∙a−1、1.25 ℃∙a−1和2.06 ℃∙a−1, ≥33 ℃高温日数增加12.2 d∙a−1, 且在2001年发生突变, 突变后较之前增加9.2 d∙a−1。相应地, 热量资源也呈显著增加趋势, 近10年较20世纪60年代, 两季枸杞产区夏、秋果期≥10 ℃活动积温分别增加266.1 ℃·d∙a−1和132 ℃·d∙a−1, 且均在20世纪90年代发生突变, 突变后较之前增多10.6%和9.1%; 一季枸杞产区全生育期≥10 ℃活动积温增加319.9 ℃·d∙a−1, 1997年出现突变, 突变后较之前增多11.4%。此外, 宁夏枸杞产区降水量和降水日数的年际间变率较大, 秋果期日照时数总体呈减少趋势。气候变化导致枸杞生育进程普遍提前11~13 d, 全生育期延长。各气象灾害中, 枸杞春季霜冻灾害风险整体增加, 尤其是2010年以来的中度到重度霜冻风险增加明显; 枸杞高温热害显著增加, 2001年发生突变, 突变后较之前平均增加12.2 d∙a−1; 阴雨寡照灾害整体呈增加趋势, 年际变率较大; 冰雹灾害呈减少趋势, 近10年较20世纪60年代平均每年减少了6站次。本研究分析了宁夏枸杞产区生育期间的农业气候资源演变趋势, 合理解释了其变化对枸杞生长发育的利弊, 同时也分析了枸杞主要气象灾害的变化情况, 为宁夏枸杞质量提升提供了科学参考, 建议应充分认识到气候变化导致的枸杞重大气象灾害不断加剧, 需要进一步加强预警和防御能力。

     

    Abstract: In order to adapt to climate change, and rationally and efficiently use agro-climatic resources, and to facilitate the high-quality development of the Lycium barbarum L. industry, the climate change trends of the major meteorological factors during the L. barbarum growth period were evaluated, and the major meteorological disasters and their possible effects on the L. barbarum industry were investigated based on meteorological data from 10 national meteorological observation stations in L. barbarum-producing areas of Ningxia from 1961 to 2021. The results showed that the temperature and the number of high-temperature damage days during the growth period of L. barbarum increased. Compared the recent 10 years to the period of the 1960s, the average, maximum, and minimum temperature increased by 1.51 ℃∙a−1, 1.25 ℃∙a−1 and 2.06 ℃∙a−1, respectively; and the number of high-temperature damage days increased by 12.2 d∙a−1, which abruptly change in 2001, and after then the number of high-temperature damage days increased by 9.2 d∙a−1. Accordingly, the heat resources also showed a significant increasing trend. The active accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃) in summer and autumn double harvest areas increased by 266.1 ℃∙d∙a−1 and 132 ℃∙d∙a−1, and both of them abruptly changed in the 1990s, and after then increased by 10.6% and 9.1%. The active accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃) during the whole growth period of L. barbarum in single harvest areas increased by 319.9 ℃·d∙a−1, and abruptly changed in 1997, after then the integrated temperature increased by 11.4%. In addition, the interannual variability in precipitation and precipitation days was large in the L. barbarum area, and sunshine hours during the autumn fruit stage showed a decreasing trend. The growth process of L. barbarum was generally earlier by 11−13 d, and the entire growth period was prolonged owing to climate change. Among all meteorological disasters, the risk of spring frost disasters increased overall, and the middle to severe frost risk increased significantly since 2010. High-temperature damage days increased significantly and abruptly chaged in 2001, with an average increase of 12.2 d∙a−1 compared to before. The occurrence of rainy days increased, and the interannual variability was also large. Hailstorm disasters showed a decreasing trend, with an average annual decrease in six station-times over the past 10 years compared with the 1960s. This study analyzed the evolutionary trend of agro-climatic resources during the growth period of L. barbarum in Ningxia, reasonably explained the advantages and disadvantages of the changes in the growth and development of L. barbarum, and analyzed the changes in the main meteorological disasters affecting L. barbarum, providing a scientific reference for the quality improvement of L. barbarum in Ningxia. It is suggested that the major meteorological disasters affecting L. barbarum induced by climate change should be fully recognized, and early warning and defense capabilities should be strengthened.

     

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