中国农业减污降碳协同效应及其影响机制研究

刘爽; 刘畅

doi:10.12357/cjea.20230605

中国农业减污降碳协同效应及其影响机制研究

刘爽^{1, 2,},
刘畅^2, ,

1.
东北农业大学马克思主义学院　哈尔滨　150030
2.
东北农业大学经济管理学院　哈尔滨　150030

基金项目: 2023年度黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(23JYC273)资助

详细信息

作者简介:
刘爽, 研究方向为农业生态经济。E-mail: 2740237205@qq.com

通讯作者:
刘畅, 研究方向为农业经营主体、企业管理、数字经济。E-mail: 389203678@qq.com

中图分类号: F323.7
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-10-18
- 录用日期: 2024-03-02
- 网络出版日期: 2024-03-10
- 刊出日期: 2024-07-17

Synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction and its influence mechanism in China

LIU Shuang^{1, 2,},
LIU Chang^2, ,

1.
School of Marxism, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
2.
School of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China

Funds: This study was supported by the Philosophy and Social Science Research Planning Project of Heilongjiang Province in 2023 (23JYC273).

More Information

Corresponding author:
LIU Chang: E-mail: 389203678@qq.com

摘要

摘要:
农业面源污染与农业碳排放是中国农业面临的重要环境问题。现有研究忽视了农业面源污染治理与农业碳减排之间的协同关系, 未探索农业减污降碳协同效应及其影响机制, 影响农业可持续发展。为此, 本文借鉴现有成果, 提出农业减污降碳协同效应概念, 基于2007—2021年中国30省份面板数据, 利用双固定效应回归模型、调节效应模型对农业减污降碳协同效应及其影响机制进行实证分析, 并讨论地区异质性。结果表明: 1)农业减污降碳协同效应存在, 农业面源污染与农业碳排放存在显著的协同关系, 当农业面源污染减少时农业碳排放也将显著减少, 该结果进行稳健性检验和处置内生性后依然成立; 2)农业化学物资消费结构对农业减污降碳协同效应产生显著负向调节作用, 农业化学物资使用效率与农业种植结构产生显著正向调节作用, 农业投资规模产生负向调节作用但不显著; 3)北方地区农业减污降碳协同效应比南方地区更为显著, 农业化学物资消费结构与农业化学物资使用效率对北方地区农业减污降碳协同效应产生显著负向调节作用, 农业种植结构对北方地区和南方地区农业减污降碳协同效应产生显著正向调节作用。因此, 农业降污减碳协同效应存在。
- 农业面源污染 /
- 农业碳排放 /
- 协同效应 /
- 农业化学物资 /
- 可持续发展
Abstract:
Agricultural non-point source pollution and carbon emissions pose significant environmental challenges for China’s agricultural sector. Previous studies have overlooked the synergistic relationship between controlling agricultural non-point source pollution and reducing carbon emissions. They also failed to investigate the combined effect of reducing agricultural pollution and carbon emissions as well as the mechanisms that influence this effect. This oversight has had an impact on the sustainable development of agriculture. This study empirically examined the synergistic effect of reducing agricultural pollution and carbon emissions using panel data collected from 30 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2021. This study utilized a dual-fixed effect regression model and regulatory effect model to analyze the influencing mechanism of this synergistic effect. In addition, this study explored the regional heterogeneity of this phenomenon. The results show that: 1) a synergistic effect on agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction and a significant synergistic relationship between agricultural nonpoint source pollution and agricultural carbon emissions exist. When agricultural non-point source pollution is reduced, agricultural carbon emissions will also be significantly reduced, and this result is still valid after robustness test and endogeneity treatment; 2) the consumption structure of agricultural chemical materials have a significant negative adjustment effect on the synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction, the use efficiency of agricultural chemical materials has a significant positive adjustment effect on agricultural planting structure, and the agricultural investment scale has a negative adjustment effect but not significant; 3) the northern agricultural pollution reduction carbon synergistic effect is more significant than that of the southern region, agricultural chemical materials consumption structure and use efficiency of agricultural chemical materials of the northern agricultural pollution reduction carbon reduction synergistic effect produce significant negative regulation effect, agricultural planting structure has a significant positive regulating effect on the synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction, and carbon reduction in both northern and southern regions. Therefore, this paper presents several recommendations. 1) In the context of agricultural environmental pollution control, it is crucial to prioritize the issue of agricultural chemical materials and implement strategies to minimize their irrational usage. 2) Upholding the grain production threshold and fostering large-scale environmentally sustainable grain production is imperative. 3) Increasing investment in the agricultural sector and providing guidance for modernizing agricultural practices is imperative. 4) Implementing differentiated agricultural development strategies. Compared with other studies, the marginal contributions of this study are as follows: 1) it proposes the concept of the synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction, analyzes the specific synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and discusses the possibility of a synergistic solution between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural carbon emissions; 2) the mechanism of the synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction is further discussed; 3) the synergistic effects of agricultural pollution and carbon reduction in different regions and their influencing mechanisms were analyzed.
- Agricultural non-point source pollution /
- Agricultural carbon emission /
- Synergistic effect /
- Agricultural chemical materials /
- Sustainable development

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图 1 农业面源污染与农业碳排放关系示意图

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural carbon emission

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图 2 2007—2021年农业面源污染与农业碳排放演变过程

Figure 2. Evolution process of agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural carbon emissions from 2007 to 2021

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图 3 农业减污降碳效应影响机制示意图

Figure 3. Schematic diagram of the influence mechanism of synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction

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表 1 农业减污降碳协同效应变量

Table 1 Variables of synergies effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction

变量类型 Type of variable	变量名称 Variable name	测量方法 Measuring method	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
被解释变量 Explained variable	农业碳排放 Agricultural carbon emissions (t)	农业生产产生的CO₂、CH₄、N₂O之和 Sum of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O produced by agricultural production	2.21E+07	1.56E+07
解释变量 Explanatory variable	农业面源污染 Agricultural non-point source pollution (t)	化肥污染量、农药污染量、农膜残留量总和 Total amount of chemical fertilizer pollution, pesticide pollution and agricultural film residues	1.25E+06	9.50E+05
调节变量 Regulated variable	农业化学物资消费结构 Consumption structure of agricultural chemicals	化肥施用量/(化肥施用量+农药使用量+农膜使用量) Fertilizer application amount / (chemical fertilizer application amount + pesticide use amount + agricultural film use amount)	0.92	0.04
	农业种植结构 Agricultural planting structure	粮食播种面积/农作物播种面积 Grain sown area / crop sown area	0.65	0.14
	农业化学物资使用效率 Use efficiency of agricultural chemical materials (×10⁸ ¥∙t⁻¹)	农业产值/(化肥施用量+农药使用量+农膜使用量) Agricultural output value / (fertilizer application amount + pesticide use amount + agricultural film use amount)	5.44E−04	1.96E−04
	农业投资规模 Scale of agricultural investment (×10⁸ ¥)	农林水事务支出 Expenditure on agriculture, forestry and water conservancy affairs	458.76	296.19
控制变量 Controlled variable	农业产值 Agricultural output value (×10⁸ ¥)	农业产值(不变价) Agricultural output value (unconstant price)	984.68	731.91
	农业聚集水平 Agricultural aggregation level	(地区农业产值/全国农业产值)/(地区生产总值/全国生产总值) (Regional agricultural output value / national agricultural output value) / (regional GDP / national GDP)	1.21	0.70
	地区产业结构 Regional industrial structure	第一产业增加值/地区生产总值 Added value of the primary industry / regional GDP	0.10	0.05
	创新与技术发展水平 Innovation and technology development level	国内专利申请授权数 Number of granted domestic patent applications	52 996.78	94 564.67
	生态环境规制 Regulation of ecological environment	环保节能支出/财政预算总支出 Expenditure on environmental protection and energy conservation / total fiscal budget expenditure	0.03	0.01
	受灾率 Disaster rate	农业受灾面积/农作物总播种面积 Agricultural affected area / total sown area of crops	0.20	0.33

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表 2 农业减污降碳协同效应估计

Table 2 Estimates of synergies effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction

	农业碳排放 Agricultural carbon emissions
	模型(1) Model (1)	模型(2) Model (2)	模型(3) Model (3)	模型(4) Model (4)	模型(5) Model (5)	模型(6) Model (6)	模型(7) Model (7)
农业面源污染 Agricultural non-point source pollution	0.62^*** (0.05)	0.77^*** (0.04)	0.73^*** (0.05)	1.01^*** (0.12)	0.63^*** (0.04)	0.62^*** (0.05)	0.58^*** (0.05)
农业化学物资消费结构 Consumption structure of agricultural chemicals	−0.04^* (0.03)		−0.07^*** (0.02)	−0.04 (0.05)	−0.04^* (0.02)	−0.05^** (0.03)	−0.05^** (0.03)
农业种植结构 Agricultural planting structure	0.07^*** (0.02)		0.03 (0.02)	−0.01 (0.04)	0.07^*** (0.02)	0.07^*** (0.02)	0.08^*** (0.02)
农业化学物资使用效率 Use efficiency of agricultural chemical materials	−0.07^*** (0.02)		−0.07^*** (0.02)	−0.28^*** (0.08)	−0.06^*** (0.02)	−0.07^*** (0.02)	−0.06^*** (0.02)
农业投资规模 Scale of agricultural investment	0.09^*** (0.02)		0.03^** (0.01)	0.25^*** (0.06)	0.09^*** (0.01)	0.09^*** (0.02)	0.10^*** (0.02)
控制变量 Controlled variable	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
常数 Constant	0.29^*** (0.03)	0.21^*** (0.01)	0.27^*** (0.03)	0.20^*** (0.05)	0.29^*** (0.03)	0.31^*** (0.03)	0.31^*** (0.03)
观测值 Observations	450	450	450	450	450	435	420
R²	0.61	0.55	0.57	0.76	0.61	0.61	0.58
地区固定效应 Regional fixed effect	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes
地区数量 Number of area	30	30	30		30	29	30
*、和分别表示1%、5%和10%的显著性水平, 括号内为标准误差。, and * indicate significance levels of 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively, with standard errors in parentheses.

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表 3 工具变量模型估计结果

Table 3 The instrumental variable model estimation results

	农业面源污染 Agricultural widespread pollution	农业碳排放 Agricultural carbon emissions
农业面源污染滞后一期(工具变量) Agricultural non-point source pollution lag phase one (tool variable)	0.98^*** (0.02)	0.57^*** (0.05)
控制变量 Controlled variable	Yes	Yes
地区固定效应 Regional fixed effect	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	Yes	Yes

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表 4 农业减污降碳协同效应影响机制分析结果

Table 4 Results of synergistic mechanism of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction

	农业碳排放 Agricultural carbon emissions
	模型(1) Model (1)	模型(2) Model (2)	模型(3) Model (3)	模型(4) Model (4)	模型(5) Model (5)	模型(6) Model (6)
农业面源污染 Agricultural non-point source pollution	2.86^***	0.80^***	37.52^***	2.76^***	2.86^***	2.47^***
农业面源污染 Agricultural non-point source pollution	(0.83)	(0.08)	(2.60)	(0.80)	(0.85)	(0.82)
农业化学物资消费结构 Consumption structure of agricultural chemicals	−0.29^***	−0.24^***	−1.45^***	−0.29^***	−0.29^***	−0.31^***
农业化学物资消费结构 Consumption structure of agricultural chemicals	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.11)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.05)
农业种植结构 Agricultural planting structure	0.12^***	0.11^***	0.03	0.12^***	0.12^***	0.14^***
农业种植结构 Agricultural planting structure	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.03)
农业化学物资使用效率 Use efficiency of agricultural chemical materials	1.22^**	−0.07^*	21.16^***	1.15^**	1.22^**	1.01^**
	(0.49)	(0.04)	(1.53)	(0.47)	(0.50)	(0.49)
农业投资规模 Scale of agricultural investment	0.08^***	0.06^***	0.24^***	0.07^***	0.08^***	0.09^***
农业投资规模 Scale of agricultural investment	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.05)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.02)
农业化学物资消费结构×农业面源污染 Consumption structure of agricultural chemicals × agricultural non-point source pollution	−0.27^***	−0.23^***	−1.08^***	−0.27^***	−0.27^***	−0.29^***
	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.09)	(0.04)	(0.05)	(0.04)
农业种植结构×农业面源污染 Agricultural planting structure×agricultural non-point source pollution	0.07^***	0.06^***	0.04	0.06^***	0.07^***	0.08^***
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.05)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
农业化学物资使用效率×农业面源污染 Use efficiency of agricultural chemical materials × agricultural non-point source pollution	1.28^**	−0.05	22.13^***	1.22^**	1.28^**	1.05^**
	(0.51)	(0.04)	(1.58)	(0.49)	(0.52)	(0.50)
农业投资规模×农业面源污染 Scale of agricultural investment × agricultural non-point source pollution	−0.04	−0.04	−0.44^***	−0.03	−0.04	−0.03
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.07)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.03)
控制变量 Controlled variable	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
常数 Constant	−0.75	0.43^***	−19.38^***	−0.70	−0.75	−0.52
常数 Constant	(0.46)	(0.05)	(1.41)	(0.44)	(0.47)	(0.46)
观测值 Observations	450	450	450	450	435	420
R²	0.64	0.61	0.85	0.64	0.62	0.63
地区固定效应 Regional fixed effect	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes
地区数量 Number of area	30	30		30	30	30

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表 5 农业降污减碳协同效应影响机制的异质性结果

Table 5 Heterogeneity results of the synergistic mechanisms of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in agriculture

	农业碳排放 Agricultural carbon emissions
	模型(1) Model (1)	模型(2) Model (2)	模型(3) Model (3)	模型(4) Model (4)
农业面源污染 Agricultural non-point source pollution	0.95^***	−0.76	0.32^***	3.30^*
农业面源污染 Agricultural non-point source pollution	(0.04)	(0.64)	(0.11)	(1.98)
农业化学物资消费结构 Consumption structure of agricultural chemicals	−0.09^***	−0.16^***	0.22^***	0.21^*
农业化学物资消费结构 Consumption structure of agricultural chemicals	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.07)	(0.12)
农业种植结构 Agricultural planting structure	−0.01	−0.01	0.22^***	0.22^***
农业种植结构 Agricultural planting structure	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.05)	(0.05)
农业化学物资使用效率 Use efficiency of agricultural chemical materials	−0.04^*	−1.06^***	−0.09^**	1.58
	(0.02)	(0.38)	(0.04)	(1.18)
农业投资规模 Scale of agricultural investment	−0.02	−0.03^*	0.02	0.07^**
农业投资规模 Scale of agricultural investment	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.03)
农业化学物资消费结构×农业面源污染 Consumption structure of agricultural chemicals × agricultural non-point source pollution		−0.13^***		0.18
		(0.03)		(0.11)
农业种植结构×农业面源污染 Agricultural planting structure × agricultural non-point source pollution		0.03^*		0.23^***
		(0.02)		(0.04)
农业化学物资使用效率×农业面源污染 Use efficiency of agricultural chemical materials × agricultural non-point source pollution		−1.09^***		1.80
		(0.39)		(1.19)
农业投资规模×农业面源污染 Scale of agricultural investment × agricultural non-point source pollution		0.03		−0.03
		(0.02)		(0.05)
控制变量 Controlled variable	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
常数 Constant	0.12^***	1.21^***	0.14	−1.74
常数 Constant	(0.02)	(0.35)	(0.09)	(1.06)
观测值 Observations	225	225	225	225
R²	0.91	0.92	0.53	0.61
地区固定效应 Regional fixed effect	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
地区数量 Number of area	15	15	15	15
地区 Region	北方地区 Northern region		南方地区 Southern region

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