Rice nitrogen footprint and prediction of emission reduction potential in the Erhai Lake Basin
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摘要: 协同环境保护和粮食安全对于流域农业高质量发展具有重要意义。水稻是我国第一大粮食作物, 在高原湖泊流域内广泛种植, 然而以往对全流域水稻氮的研究往往忽视了排放因子的空间异质性, 且通过田间综合技术优化对水稻增产与减排潜力的影响尚不清楚。本研究以洱海流域为典型案例, 基于洱海全域农户调研数据, 运用生命周期评价与随机森林模型方法系统评估流域水稻生产氮足迹; 并基于西南地区田间试验预测该流域水稻生产的减排潜力。结果表明: 洱海流域水稻平均产量为8598.5 kg∙hm−2, 平均氮肥投入量为222.0 kg(N)∙hm−2, 主要以洱海北部和西部区域较高。平均活性氮损失为55.1 kg(N)∙hm−2, 其中氧化亚氮(N2O)排放、氨(NH3)挥发、氮径流和氮淋洗占比分别为0.8%、61.3%、15.1%和22.9%; 从空间分布特征来看, 洱海北部和西部具有较高的环境风险。结合区域水稻种植面积, 流域水稻活性氮损失为440.0 t。通过随机森林模型预测, 洱海流域水稻种植可减少22.9%的活性氮损失, 同时增加21.1%的产量。该研究可为探索高原湖泊流域内水稻绿色生产可持续氮素管理提供依据。Abstract: Collaborative environmental protection and food security are of great significance for high-quality agricultural development in lake basins. Rice, the primary grain crop in China, is widely planted in lake basins. However, previous studies on nitrogen (N) in rice across basins often ignored the spatial heterogeneity of emission factors and impact of field-integrated technological optimization on rice yield increases, while emission reductions remain unclear. This study aimed to clarify the current status and reduction potential of N fertilizer of rice planting system in the Erhai Basin using survey data from 194 households and 322 literature sources on reactive nitrogen loss. Life cycle assessment and random forest models were employed for comprehensive evaluation. The emission reduction and increased production potential of this basin were predicted based on 836 site-year field experiments conducted in the southwest region. Results displayed that average rice yield was 8598.5 kg·hm−2, with an average N fertilizer input of 222.0 kg(N)∙hm−2. The types of N fertilizer used included chemical and organic sources, with an average application of 95.6 kg(N)∙hm−2 for chemical N and 126.4 kg(N)∙hm−2 for organic N, in which the organic N accounted for 56.9% of total N fertilizer application. The regions with high N input and surplus areas were mainly located in the north, including Zibihu, Dengchuan, Fengyu, and Yousuo towns, as well as in the western part, including Shangguan, Xizhou, Wanqiao, Yinqiao towns, and Haidong Town in the eastern part. The average N losses was 55.1 kg(N)∙hm−2, with nitrous oxide emissions, ammonia volatilization, surface N runoff, and N leaching accounted for 0.8%, 61.3%, 15.1% and 22.9%, respectively. The spatial distribution characteristics indicated a higher environmental risk in the northern and western part. Combined with the rice-planting region area, the total N loss was 440.0 t in the Erhai Lake Basin. The random forest model predicted that the rice production system could reduce reactive N losses by 22.9% while increasing rice yield by 21.1%. Compared to traditional farming, optimized technology can reduce N input by 428.5 t and reduce N losses by 105.6 t. By implementing optimized technology, the rice planting system in the Erhai Lake Basin could achieve increased yield, and reduced emissions. The study results provide a good reference for the green and high-quality development of plateau lake basins agriculture.
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图 1 洱海流域水稻种植调研点分布图
Figure 1. Distribution of rice planting survey points in the Erhai Basin
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图 2 综合技术减排潜力预测执行框架
Figure 2. Implementation framework for predicting the potential of comprehensive technology emission reduction
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图 4 洱海流域水稻氮肥投入与产量的关系
Figure 4. Relationship between nitrogen fertilizer input and yield of rice in the Erhai Basin
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图 5 洱海流域水稻氮素投入、氮素吸收与盈余的空间分布
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of rice nitrogen input, nitrogen uptake and surplus in the Erhai Basin
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图 6 洱海流域水稻活性氮排放量及其空间分布
Figure 6. Reactive nitrogen emissions from rice and spatial distribution in the Erhai Basin
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图 7 洱海流域传统管理与优化管理情景下水稻施氮量、氮盈余、氮损失及产量预测
Figure 7. Prediction of nitrogen application rate, nitrogen surplus, nitrogen loss, and yield for rice under conventional and optimized management scenarios in the Erhai Basin
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