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摘要: 冬小麦是甘肃省主要粮食作物，水分是限制该省旱作冬小麦生产最主要的因素，降水时空分布不均造成冬小麦干旱常年发生，因此准确监测甘肃省冬小麦干旱及定量评估灾害损失可为决策部门制定农业防灾减灾措施及保障区域粮食安全提供科学依据。利用甘肃省1981-2014年3个农业气象观测站土壤水分和冬小麦生育状况观测资料，38个冬小麦种植县气象资料、产量资料及干旱灾情资料，考虑冬小麦休闲期土壤储水及生育期水分盈亏量修订了作物水分盈亏指数，修订后作物水分盈亏指数与土壤储水、冬小麦产量要素和产量损失相关性较高，能客观、准确、定量地反映干旱对甘肃冬小麦产量的影响；利用水分盈亏指数分别建立冬小麦产量要素和产量损失评估模型。结果表明：产量要素评估模型均通过0.01水平显著性检验，产量损失评估模型大部分通过0.05水平显著性检验。产量要素评估模型回代结果与冬小麦产量要素实测值间均通过0.01水平的F检验；产量损失评估模型验证结果表明，68.4%种植县通过0.05水平F检验，基本能准确评估全省大部分地方干旱对冬小麦产量造成的损失。修订后作物水分盈亏指数能客观反映甘肃省冬小麦干旱，建立的评估模型能准确评估干旱对冬小麦造成的损失，具有一定的应用价值。Abstract: Winter wheat is a major grain crop in Gansu Province, where precipitation is the most limiting factor for winter wheat production. The uneven space-time distribution of precipitation results in perennial winter wheat drought in Gansu Province. It is therefore practically important to accurately monitor drought and quantitatively evaluate disaster losses of winter wheat in Gansu Province. This can provide the needed scientific basis for decision-making departments to formulate agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation measures towards regional food security. In this study, we collected data on soil water content and winter wheat growth conditions in three agronomic observatory stations. Data were also collected on meteorological conditions, yield and drought disaster in 38 winter wheat growing counties for the period 1981-2014. Based on soil water storage during fallow period and on water budget for winter wheat development stage, crop water budget index was revised. There was a high correlation among crop water budget index and soil water storage, yield factors and losses. Therefore, it objectively, accurately and quantitatively reflected the impact of drought on winter wheat yield in Gansu Province. A yield-factor assessment model and a yield-loss assessment model were developed in the study based on the revised water budget index. The results showed that while the yield-factor assessment model passed 0.01 test of significance, and much of the yield-loss assessment model passed 0.05 test of significance. The assed and measured values of winter wheat yield factors passed F-test (P < 0.01). The validation results of the yield loss assessment model showed that 68.4% of wheat growing counties passed F-test (P < 0.05), which more accurately assessed the loss due to drought in Gansu Province. The revised crop water budget index objectively reflected the drought of winter wheat in Gansu Province and the established assessment model accurately estimated the loss due to drought, which provided a reliable reference for application.
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Keywords:
- Winter wheat /
- Water budget index /
- Drought /
- Soil water storage /
- Yield factor /
- Yield loss /
- Assessment model
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图 1 甘肃省不同气候区1 m土层储水量多年平均观测值
Figure 1. Annual average values of 1 m soil water storages in different climate regions of Gansu Province
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图 2 冬小麦水分盈亏指数(L)与1 m土层总储水量散点图
Figure 2. Scatter plot of water budget index (L) of winter wheat and soil water storage in 1 m depth
表 1 甘肃省不同气候区冬小麦平均生育期
Table 1 Average developmental stages of winter wheat in different climate regions of Gansu Province
区域
Region播种期
Sowing period越冬期
Overwinter period返青期
Reviving period拔节期
Jointing period开花期
Flowering period成熟期
Mature休闲期
Fallow period半干旱区
Semi-arid region9月下旬
Late Sep.11月中旬
Middle Nov.3月下旬
Late Mar.5月上旬
Early May6月上旬
Early Jun.7月上旬
Early Jul.7月中旬—9月中旬
Middle Jul. to middle Sep.半湿润区
Semi-humid region9月中旬
Middle Sep.11月中旬
Middle Nov.3月中旬
Middle Mar.4月下旬
Late Apr.5月下旬
Late May6月下旬
Late Jun.7月上旬—9月上旬
Early Jul. to early Sep.湿润区
Humid region10月中旬
Middle Oct.12月中旬
Middle Dec.2月中旬
Middle Feb.4月上旬
Early Apr.5月上旬
Early May6月中旬
Middle Jun.6月下旬—10月上旬
Late Jun. to early Oct.
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表 2 甘肃省不同气候区休闲期降水和土壤储水状况
Table 2 Precipitations and soil water storages in fallow period in different climate regions of Gansu Province
气候区
Climate region1 m土层储水量Soil water storage of 1 m depth (mm) 休闲期降水量
Precipitation in fallow period (mm)休闲期储水量
Soil water storage in fallow period (mm)休闲期储水效率
Soil water storage efficiency in fallow period (%)最大值
Maximum轻旱
Light drought重旱
Severe drought半干旱区
Semi-arid region277.3 166.4 110.9 171.9 24.4 14.2 半湿润区
Semi-humid region295.4 177.2 118.2 267.7 85.6 32.0 湿润区
Humid region277.7 166.6 111.1 396.4 71.8 18.1
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表 3 甘肃省不同气候区冬小麦各发育阶段的作物系数(Kc)
Table 3 Crop coefficients (Kc) of winter wheat in different development stages in different climate regions of Gansu Province
地区
Region休闲期
Fallowing period播种—越冬期
Sowing-overwinter period越冬期
Overwinter period返青—拔节期
Recovering-jointing period拔节—乳熟期
Jointing-milky ripe period乳熟—成熟期
Milky ripe-mature半干旱区
Semi-arid region0.60 0.60 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.40 半湿润区
Semi-humid region0.60 0.70 0.40 0.70 0.90 0.40 湿润区
Humid region0.70 0.65 0.40 0.65 0.73 0.50
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表 4 甘肃省冬小麦水分盈亏指数干旱等级划分
Table 4 Drought classification according to revised water budget index of winter wheat in Gansu Province
等级
Grade类型
Type水分盈亏指数(L)
Water budget index减产率
Yield reduction rate (%)0 无旱
No droughtL > 0 < 5 1 轻旱
Light drought-0.1 < L≤0 5~10 2 中旱
Middle drought-0.3 < L≤-0.1 10~20 3 重旱
Severe drought-0.5 < L≤-0.3 20~30 4 特旱
Extreme droughtL≤-0.5 > 30
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表 5 冬小麦不同生育阶段水分盈亏指数与产量要素的相关系数
Table 5 Correlation coefficients of water budget indexes in different growth periods and yield components of winter wheat
产量要素
Yield component越冬期
Overwinter period返青期
Reviving period拔节期
Jointing period开花期
Flowering period成熟期
Mature株成穗数Spike number per plant 0.391* 0.470** 0.560** 0.553** 0.545** 穗粒数Grain number per panicle 0.470** 0.564** 0.505** 0.423** 0.369* 千粒重Thousand grain weight 0.325* 0.493** 0.510** 0.445** 0.383* 小穗数Spikelet number 0.392* 0.627** 0.657** 0.543** 0.506** **和*分别表示通过0.01和0.05水平信度检验。** and * mean significant correlations at 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively.
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表 6 基于冬小麦拔节期、开花期水分盈亏指数(x)的产量要素(y)评估模型
Table 6 Yield components (y) assessment models of winter wheat based on water budget indexes (x) in jointing and flowering periods
产量要素
Yield component生育期
Growth period评估模型
Assessment modelF 株成穗数
Spike number per plant拔节期Jointing period y=0.867 7x+1.408 9 34.256 5** 开花期Flowering period y=1.125 3x+1.665 8 37.409 8** 穗粒数
Grain number per panicle拔节期Jointing period y=8.241 6x+23.269 0 34.800 4** 开花期Flowering period y=9.310 7x+25.573 0 18.506 8** 千粒重
Thousand grain weight拔节期Jointing period y=10.659 0x+32.705 7 27.360 3** 开花期Flowering period y=12.662 0x+35.698 0 20.935 4** 小穗数
Spikelet number拔节期Jointing period y=4.187 9x+13.199 8 32.069 4** 开花期Flowering period y=4.685 1x+14.347 0 20.903 3** **表示通过0.01水平显著性检验。** means significant correlation at 0.01 level.
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表 7 基于不同生育阶段水分盈亏指数(x)的甘肃省不同气候区冬小麦产量损失(y)评估模型
Table 7 Yield losses (y) assessment models of winter wheat based on water budget indexes (x) in different growth periods in different climate regions of Gansu Province
生育期
Growth period半干旱区Semi-arid region 半湿润区Semi-humid region 湿润区Humid region 评估模型
Assessment modelR2 评估模型
Assessment modelR2 评估模型
Assessment modelR2 越冬期Overwinter period y=-0.198 0+0.286 5x 0.428* y=-0.221 0+0.192 5x 0.570** y=-0.103 8+0.066 9x 0.471* 返青期Recovering period y=0.021 8+0.730 3x 0.505* y=-0.169 8+0.246 4x 0.532** y=-0.096 3+0.095 3x 0.502* 拔节期Jointing period y=0.282 4+1.014 4x 0.524* y=-0.035 9+0.581 7x 0.678** y=-0.065 3+0.215 2x 0.611** 开花期Flowering period y=0.650 7+1.493 9x 0.625** y=0.178 6+0.841 2x 0.656** y=0.001 7+0.092 1x 0.244 成熟期Mature y=0.435 3+1.177 1x 0.538** y=0.122 3+0.689 6x 0.569** y=-0.001 9+0.075 4x 0.198 **和*分别表示通过0.01和0.05水平信度检验。** and * mean significant correlations at 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively.
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表 8 基于不同生育阶段水分盈亏指数冬小麦产量要素评价模型检验结果
Table 8 Test results of yield components assessment models based on water budget indexes in different growth periods of winter wheat
生育期
Growth period株成穗数
Spike number per plant穗粒数
Grain number per panicle千粒重
1000-grain weight小穗数
Spikelet number相对误差平均值
Average of relative error (%)F检验水平
Significance
(F)相对误差平均值
Average of relative error (%)F检验水平
Significance
(F)相对误差平均值
Average of relative error (%)F检验水平
Significance
(F)相对误差平均值
Average of relative error (%)F检验水平
Significance
(F)拔节期
Jointing period5.3 0.001 6.0 0.001 4.8 0.001 1.8 0.004 开花期
Flowering period5.2 0.001 6.8 0.001 5.3 0.001 1.9 0.001
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