气候变化情景下东北地区玉米产量变化模拟

Simulation of maize production under climate change scenario in Northeast China

摘要: WOFOST作物模型在东北地区玉米适应性验证的基础上，结合气候模型BCCT63输出的未来60年（2011～2070年）气候情景资料，模拟分析了未来气候变化情景下我国东北地区玉米生育期和产量变化情况。模拟结果显示：未来气候变化情景下，玉米生育期将缩短，其中，中熟玉米平均缩短3.4 d，晚熟玉米平均缩短1.1 d；玉米产量将相应下降，中熟玉米平均减产3.5％，晚熟玉米平均减产2.1％。

Abstract: Based on adaptability test of WOFOST crop model for maize production in Northeast China and using a 60-year climate scenario data (2011 ～ 2070) produced by BCC-T63 model, maize growth and yield change umder climate change scenario in Northeast China was simulated and analyzed. The simulation results show a shortened maize growth cycle. The growth cycle of medium-mature maize shortens by 3.4 days and that of late-mature maize shortens by 1.1 days. Yield of maize also decreases by different degrees; medium-mature maize decreases by 3.5% while late-mature maize decreases by 2.1%.