过去30年气候变化对华北平原冬小麦物候的影响研究
Impact of climate change in 1981-2009 on winter wheatphenology in the North China Plain
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摘要: 全球变暖已成为全球共同关注的问题。作物物候对气候变化的响应是研究气候变化对农业生产影响的重要内容。本文选用1981-2009年华北平原16个农业气象观测站的冬小麦物候资料, 利用统计方法分析了冬小麦物候的变化趋势。结果表明, 过去30年华北平原冬小麦播种期、出苗期和越冬开始期推迟, 而返青期、开花期和成熟期呈提前趋势。物候期的提前或推迟促使小麦不同生长发育阶段历时发生变化, 出苗-越冬开始、越冬开始-返青、返青-开花等阶段呈缩短趋势, 但开花-成熟阶段生育期却延长0.9 d·10a-1, 整个生育期历时呈减少趋势, 平均减少3.4 d·10a 1。本文采用作物模型(CERES-Wheat)模拟固定小麦品种在气候变化背景下的物候变化趋势, 以探讨冬小麦物候变化的主要驱动因子。模拟结果表明, 过去30年小麦开花期和成熟期提前的主要驱动因素为气候变化, 品种变换在一定程度上可减缓气候变化对物候的影响。Abstract: A warming climate trend in the last three decades has been well documented around the global and this trend have had a considerable impact on agricultural productivity. Phenology is a plant growth progress that is largely driven by meteorological conditions. Phenological changes are vital indicators for changes in climate and other environmental conditions. In this study, the trends in winter wheat phenology for 1981-2009 were investigated based on phenological dates from 16 agro-experimental stations in the North China Plain (NCP). The study showed that the dates of sowing, emergence and dormancy delayed. On the other hand, the dates of green-up, anthesis and maturity advanced in most of the stations. The advance or delay of winter wheat phenology resulted in corresponding changes in the durations of the different growth stages. In most of the investigated stations, the durations from emergence to dormancy, dormancy to green-up, green-up to anthesis and in the entire period from emergence to maturity of winter wheat shortened during 1981-2009. However, the duration of anthesis to maturity slightly prolonged on the average by 0.9 days per decade. Observed changes in winter wheat phenology were functions of both climate and management practices, especially that of cultivated cultivar shift. The effect of crop cultivar shift was isolated from that of climate change on winter wheat phonological changes by comparing field observed phonological events in four stations with those simulated by the CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-Wheat model. The results suggested that climate warming played a dominant role in phenological changes in winter wheat in the NCP. However, the effect of cultivar shift on winter wheat phenological changes was not entirely negligible. Moreover, correlation analysis on the durations of green-up to anthesis and anthesis to maturity against mean temperatures for the growth periods showed that temperature increase by 1 ℃ shortened the durations of green-up to anthesis and anthesis to maturity by 3.8 and 1.2 days, respectively. Understanding the response of crop development and phenology to climate change was critical for not only building in-depth insights into the impacts of climate change on crop development and productivity, but also on food security for the millions of people in the region and beyond.