甘肃省冬油菜种植适宜性及影响因子评价
Evaluation of the suitability and influencing factors of winter rapeseed planting in Gansu Province
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摘要: 全球气候变暖背景下, 随着气候变化、油菜栽培技术的进步和油菜新品种的育成推广, 我国传统油菜生产格局和种植结构发生明显变化, 甘肃省冬油菜的种植地带也随之向北扩展, 种植的海拔高度抬升, 种植面积和产量显著增加。研究甘肃省冬油菜种植适宜性, 对改进甘肃省油菜生产布局, 合理调整农作物种植结构具有重要意义。本研究获取多年田间试验数据, 初步筛选9个影响冬油菜种植分布的潜在气候因子, 采用基于DEM的小网格法建立9个影响冬油菜种植分布的潜在气象因子空间分布图层, 在此基础上利用最大熵模型和GIS空间分布技术, 构建冬油菜潜在分布模型, 分析影响甘肃省冬油菜种植分布的主要生态因子及其特征, 评价甘肃省冬油菜种植适宜性。研究结果表明: 甘肃省冬油菜种植分布概率为0~0.89, 按其分布概率可将甘肃省冬油菜种植区域划分为不适宜种植区域、次适宜种植区域、适宜种植区域和最适宜种植区域, 可以种植冬油菜的区域占甘肃省总面积的60%, 大于实际冬油菜种植面积, 冬油菜在甘肃省种植具有很大的发展潜力。按照9个潜在气象因子对冬油菜种植分布贡献率的大小, 确定影响甘肃省冬油菜种植分布的6个主导气象因子及其阈值为: 负积温≥ 800 ℃, 最冷月最低温度≥ 20 ℃, 最冷月平均温度≥ 15 ℃, 年平均温度≥4 ℃, 极端低温≥ 28 ℃, 50 mm≤生育期降水量≤200 mm。并以此指导甘肃省冬油菜种植布局, 调整甘肃省农作物种植结构, 引导农民优化种植模式, 提高经济效益。Abstract: Research have shown that under global climate change, the development of winter rapeseed cultivation technology and the introduction of new varieties have significantly changed traditional crop production patterns and structures of winter rapeseed. Winter rapeseed planting regions have extended northwards and the altitudes increased which have in turn increased crop planting area and output in Gansu Province. Through analysis of the adaption of winter rapeseed to climate change using GIS spatial platform and maximum entropy models, this paper provided the basic reference for improving winter rapeseed production layout and restructuring of agricultural construction. The study analyzed the main influencing factors and distribution characteristics of winter rapeseed planting patterns in Gansu Province. It also simulated the adaption of winter rapeseed to climate change and provided reasonable scientific suggestions on the production patterns of winter rapeseed in Gansu Province. The growth regions were divided into four types based on the degree of adaption to climate - unsuitable area, less suitable area, suitable area and optimum area. The results showed that the winter rapeseed planting area accounted for 60% of the total area, which was greater than the actual planting area in Gansu Province. The planting distribution probability of winter rapeseed was 0 0.89 and with significant potential for the development of winter rapeseed cultivation in Gansu Province. The key climatic factors affecting the cultivation, distribution of winter rapeseed production were precipitation during the growth period, negative cumulative temperatures, minimum temperature of the coldest month, average temperature of the coldest month, annual average temperature and extreme low temperature. And their limits were 50?200 mm, ≥?800, ≥?20 ℃, ≥?15 ℃, ≥4 ℃ and ≥-28 ℃.