斜纹夜蛾自然种群数量动态预测研究

Prediction of the natural population dynamics of Spodoptera litura Fabricius

摘要: 根据斜纹夜蛾发育历期与温度的数学关系、卵和幼虫田间自然存活率及田间逐日产卵量参数，研究建立了斜纹夜蛾种群数量动态预测的变维矩阵模型。并运用该模型预测南昌市郊区甘蓝田斜纹夜蛾自然种群数量动态，其预测结果与实际观测结果基本相符。

Abstract: Depending on the mathematical relationship between the development period and temperature,the survival rate of egg and larvae in fields and the relationship between egg and date,a dimension-changable matrix model was established to predict the natural population dynamics of Spodoptera litura F.in cabbage fields in the suburbs of Nanchang City.The trends of the population dynamics of the observed and predicted are quite similar.