冬小麦黄矮病预测模型研究

Forecast model of BYDV in winter wheat

摘要: 简析了冬小麦黄矮病流行的预报因子及其对病害发生的显著影响、黄矮病流行趋势预测的研究动态，并采用多元回归分析法建立了冬小麦黄矮病预测模型（Y=-1.0944-0.0322X₁+0.2604X₂+0.1049X₃-0.0062X₄+0.0382X₅），经回归检验其历史拟合率高达87.5%。

Abstract: The forecast factors of BYDV popularity and their prominent effect on the disease are analyzed and the study developments of forecast on current BYDV are summarized.The forecast model of BYDV—Y=-1.0944-0.0322X₁+0.2604X₂+0.1049X₃-0.0062X₄+0.0382X₅—is constituted using the regressive analysis method. The model’s ratio according with the history equal 87.5% by the regressive test.