Supply and demand characteristics and scenario analysis of coastal wetland ecosystem services in Hebei Province

Coastal wetlands are located in ecotones of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the changes in ecosystem services and human well-being caused by wetland areas can provide a reference for improving wetland ecosystem services, protecting coastal ecological environments, and managing ecological security. This study analyzed the changes in the coastal wetland areas in the Hebei Province, evaluated the supply of ecosystem services and the social demand for wetland ecosystem services in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020, and quantitatively analyzed the supply and demand characteristics of coastal wetland ecosystem services based on the supply and demand ratio. Finally, a scenario analysis was used to predict the supply and demand security of coastal wetlands in the Hebei Province by 2030. The results show that: 1) the ecological security of coastal wetlands in Hebei is threatened, mainly manifested by a reduction in natural wetland areas and wetland ecological corridors. 2) In addition to the increase in aquatic product supply service, the supply of ecosystem services, such as the water resource supply, environmental purification, flood regulation, carbon sequestration, oxygen release, and aesthetic landscapes in the Hebei coastal wetlands, has decreased. The demand for wetland ecosystem services by society in the Hebei coastal area has increased. 3) Coastal wetlands in Hebei account for only 6.3% of the total coastal area. Nevertheless, the flood regulation services that they provide meet the needs of the entire coastal area in Hebei. 4) Good ecological security status of the flood regulation services is present in the Hebei coastal wetlands. Aquatic product supply, water resource supply, and environmental purification services are currently key ecological security issues that require focus and are potential hazards that may affect the future ecological security of the Hebei coastal wetlands. Carbon sequestration, oxygen release, and aesthetic landscape services are shortcomings in the future development of ecological security in the Hebei coastal wetlands. 5) Under the scenario analysis, the scenario of strict wetland protection has the highest supply and demand ratio of ecosystem services, which is the best scenario model for the future development of the coastal wetland ecosystem in Hebei.