Agricultural carbon emission efficiency and influencing factors in Hebei Province

Hebei Province is a largely agricultural province facing the dual pressures of high levels of total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity. Studying its agricultural carbon emission efficiency is of great significance for achieving low-carbon agricultural production. Based on panel data on agricultural production from 2010 to 2022, this study measured the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of 11 cities in Hebei Province using the Super-SBM (Slack-Based Measure) model with non-expected output. Spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics were analyzed based on the Global-Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index and the Theil index. This study further explored the factors influencing agricultural carbon emission efficiency using the Tobit model. The results showed that the overall efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province fluctuated from 2010 to 2022. It was generally at a high-efficiency level with 3% room for improvement from the efficiency frontier. The improvement in efficiency in the southern Hebei region was the most significant, with an increase of 0.82. The Theil index of agricultural carbon emission efficiency increased from 0.025 in 2010 to 0.031 in 2022. The differences in the Theil index within regions were greater than those between regions. This indicates that the differences in carbon emission efficiency among the four major regions of eastern, central, northern, and southern Hebei were small and the differences within regions were significantly larger than those between regions. The efficiency gap between different cities showed a fluctuating upward trend. The range reached a level of 0.89 by 2013. Although it decreased thereafter, the range reached 0.86 again by 2016. The technological efficiency and technological progress of eight cities, namely Qinhuangdao, Chengde, Langfang, Hengshui, Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Xingtai, and Handan, contributed to the improvement of agricultural carbon emissions efficiency. The improvement in emission efficiency in three cities, namely Tangshan, Zhangjiakou, and Cangzhou, primarily relied on technological progress. The technical efficiency index and technical progress index of agriculture in the province grew at average annual rates of 1% and 13%, respectively. Technological progress was the main factor in improving the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province. However, comprehensive agricultural environmental management still needs to be enhanced. The development level of rural economic, urbanization rate, effective irrigation rate, and education level of labor force were significant drivers for improving agricultural carbon emission efficiency. The structure of agricultural industrialization and fertilizer application intensity had significant negative effects on agricultural carbon emissions efficiency.