Spatial spillover and threshold effects of rural revitalization on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin

Extreme weather conditions caused by excessive carbon dioxide emissions have attracted the attention of governments worldwide. Agriculture is an important source of carbon emissions, and rural revitalization is an important strategy for promoting comprehensive rural development in China. The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier and economic zone in China. Therefore, clarifying the impact of rural revitalization on agricultural carbon emissions in the region is of great significance for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and the low-carbon development of agriculture. Based on the panel data of 88 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2021, we established evaluation indicators for rural revitalization, measured rural revitalization in the Yellow River Basin using the entropy method, calculated agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin using the IPCC carbon emission factor method, adopted a spatial econometric model and threshold regression model to analyze the impact and spatial spillover effect of rural revitalization on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, and analyzed the nonlinear relationship and regional heterogeneity between them. Results showed that rural revitalization, and agricultural carbon emissions had spatial clustering characteristics of the same type. The spatial econometric model results showed that rural revitalization had a significant promotional effect on agricultural carbon emissions, while exhibiting a significant negative spatial spillover effect. Additionally, industrial structure and urbanization rate had a negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions, while the planting scale, fertilizer application intensity, and agricultural economic development had a positive impact on agricultural carbon emissions. The industrial structure, planting scale, and fertilizer application intensity had a negative spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emissions, while urbanization rate and agricultural economic development had a positive spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emissions. The threshold model results showed that rural revitalization had a threshold effect on agricultural technological progress in terms of agricultural carbon emissions. When agricultural technological progress exceeded the threshold, the impact of rural revitalization on agricultural carbon emissions changed from positive to negative. From the perspective of heterogeneity, rural revitalization had significant heterogeneity in agricultural carbon emissions; specifically, rural revitalization had an inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions in the major grain-producing areas, whereas it had a promotional effect on agricultural carbon emissions in non-major grain-producing areas. Regarding geographic location, rural revitalization had an inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin and a promotional effect in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin. This study provides a theoretical reference and policy basis for promoting rural revitalization strategies and low-carbon agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin.