Influence factors and prediction analysis of carbon emissions from planting industry in Liaoning Province

With the continuous development of the economy and society, climate change has also come into people’s sight. On September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping announced at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that China will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Building a socialist ecological civilization with carbon reduction as an important task requires all industries to make certain contributions to carbon reduction. Agriculture is the main carbon source of greenhouse gas emissions, and planting is an important component of agriculture. Hence, carrying out research pertaining to carbon emissions stemming from the planting industry holds immense significance. Based on two types of carbon sources, namely agricultural land use and farmland soil use, the factor coefficient method was used to comprehensively calculate the carbon emissions of the planting industry in Liaoning Province from 2003 to 2021. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI model) was used to decompose the influencing factors of the carbon emissions of the planting industry in Liaoning Province, and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT model) was used to predict the carbon emissions of the planting industry from 2022 to 2025. The results showed that: 1) The overall carbon emissions of the planting industry in Liaoning Province showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, achieved carbon peak in 2013. The main carbon source in agricultural land utilization is chemical fertilizer, and the main carbon source in farmland soil is rice. The carbon emission of corn has a rapid growth and exceeded that of rice for the first time in 2015. 2) The results of LMDI model decomposition of influencing factors show that economic level is the most important factor to promote planting industry in Liaoning Province, and production efficiency is the most important factor to restrain the carbon emission of planting industry in Liaoning Province. The direction of the influence of industrial structure and agricultural population is uncertain. 3) Under both the baseline and low-carbon scenarios, the carbon emissions from the planting industry in Liaoning Province showed a downward trend from 2022 to 2030. Finally, short-term and long-term policy recommendations were proposed for carbon reduction in the planting industry in Liaoning Province. In the short term, while promoting mechanization upgrading, the green upgrade of agricultural machinery and machinery. In the long run, on the basis of ensuring food security, reasonable adjustments should be made to the rural industrial structure, low-carbon planting technologies should be promoted, and the green production level of the planting industry should be comprehensively improved.