The impact of agricultural socialization service on agricultural carbon emission intensity in major grain-producing areas and its spatial spillover effect

The major grain producing areas bear the double security burden of food and ecology, and it is of practical significance to explore the influence mechanism of socialized service for agriculture on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in order to promote the low-carbon transformation of agriculture in the major grain producing areas. This paper selects panel data from 13 provinces (autonomous regions) in major grain producing areas in recent 15 years, and uses the ordinary least square method, the intermediary effect model and the Spatial Durbin model of time fixed effect to further explore the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural socialization services on agricultural carbon emission intensity, and the spatial spillover effects. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) Socialized service for agriculture has a significant “carbon reduction effect” on agricultural carbon emission intensity. From the perspective of four dimensions of socialized service for agriculture, agricultural information service, rural public service and agricultural finance and insurance all reduce agricultural carbon emission intensity, while agricultural material service increases agricultural carbon emission intensity. 2) Based on the level of economic development, the main grain -producing areas were divided into three major river basins. It was found that the agricultural socialization service in the Yangtze River basin and the Yellow River basin reduced the agricultural carbon emission intensity to a certain extent, while the socialized service for agriculture in the Songhua River basin increased the agricultural carbon emission intensity to a certain extent. 3) Agricultural operation scale and agricultural financial support have mediating effects on agricultural carbon emission intensity, that is, socialized service for agriculture can indirectly reduce agricultural carbon emission intensity by promoting the expansion of agricultural operation scale and reducing the negative environmental effects caused by agricultural financial support 4) Socialized service for agriculture in the main grain-producing areas have a strong negative spatial spillover effect on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions, and every 1% increase in socialized service for agriculture in this province reduces the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in neighboring provinces by 7.04%. Based on the above conclusions, the government should improve the development level of socialized service for agriculture in the provinces of the main grain-producing areas, reasonably plan the development direction and scope of socialized service for agriculture, and build communication channels between socialized service for agriculture and agricultural carbon emission reduction in the provinces of the main grain producing areas, so as to reduce the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas, and to assist in the transformation of the main grain producing areas into a green and low-carbon agriculture at an early date.