Climatic potential productivity and stress risk of winter wheat under the background of climate change in Anhui Province

Climate change has significantly influenced agricultural production in Anhui Province, a main food-producing region in China. For the comprehensive assessment of the beneficial and detrimental effects of climate change on winter wheat, this study established evaluation indices system and method of climatic potential productivity and stress risk. The responses of climatic potential productivity and stress risk of winter wheat to climate change of Anhui Province were then analyzed. Lastly, comprehensive climate-suitability zoning was proposed by considering the effects of climate on winter wheat yield and yield stability. Applying a stepwise evaluation method and dynamic growth parameters produced an estimated average climatic potential productivity of winter wheat of 12 391 kg·hm^-2 in Anhui Province. During 1961-2015, climatic potential productivity significantly increased in the region north of the Huaihe River, but deceased in the region south of the Huaihe River. Heat, cold, waterlogging, and drought stresses were analyzed by considering the effects of climatic conditions deviating from the optimal range during winter wheat growth. Based on the surpassing probability of climate stress, this study further assessed the climatic risks to winter wheat. Heat stress on winter wheat increased significantly, but a decreasing trend was found in variation in cold stress. The stress of waterlogging and drought exhibited no significant change trend. The northern and southern regions of Anhui Province were dominated by high climatic risk to winter wheat, but relatively low risk was found in the central region. The high climatic risk in the region north of the Huaihe River was primarily attributed to drought and cold stress, while the southern region was dominated by the waterlogging risk. The climatic suitability of winter wheat assessed with climatic potential productivity and stress risk was lower in southern and northern regions, but higher in the central regions of Anhui Province. The spatial distribution of winter wheat planting was generally consistent with climate suitability, while the planting layout could be further optimized to adapt to the climate.