Impact of climate change on winter wheat production in the Hebei Plain

Based on climate characteristics and wheat production data for 1951～ 2006 on the Hebei Plain and in conjunction with regression analysis, M-K examination, T-test, linear reconcile moving average and other statistical methods, the influence of climate change on winter wheat production was investigated. The results show an obvious linear rise in temperature for the spring of 1951～ 2006 at the rate of 0.38 °C per decade. No significant linear change of spring rainfall during 1951~2006 is observed. Wheat production has significant correlation with air temperature and rainfall. The wheat climate yield is positive when the temperature varies between －1.2～1.2℃. High or low temperatures, but especially high temperatures, lead to decreasing wheat yield. And continuous high temperatures in recent years have led to decreasing wheat yield. Accordingly, excessively high or low rainfall significantly decreases wheat yield.