Assessment framework and method of agricultural system resilience to drought——A case study of Xingtai City, Hebei Province

Based on review of global research, this paper discussed critical problems of agricultural system resilience to drought in irrigated regions, proposed a framework and advanced a resilience assessment model, using Xingtai City in China’s Hebei Province as a case study. On a time-scale of growing season or year, the results showed that significantly drop in precipitation influenced drought situations in the region. Spatial analysis showed that disaster distribution depended largely on agricultural resources, drought-coping capacity, and social economy level, and not only on precipitation. The central flat areas with over-pumped shallow groundwater (in recent decades) had a higher resilience index. Resilience index was relatively low in the western mountains and hills where water for irrigation was scarce, per capita crop land was insufficient and per capita pure income was low. In the eastern plains, resilience index was quiet mixed. Counties with strong water fetching and financial capacity had much higher resilience capacity and counties with poor economy quiet low. This indicated that economic capacity had a significant influence on agricultural system resilience to drought. On the time-scale of a year, drought resilience that was driven by groundwater over-pumping was not practically sustainable because it neglected physical water balance and ecological stability.