Impact of climate change on the division of jujube planting zones in Xinjiang

On the backdrop of climate change, changes in climatic zones of jujube planting in Xinjiang was studied. Of significant importance were adaptation to climate change, full rational use of agro-climatic resources, scientific planting of Xinjiang jujube, development planning and promotion of sustainable/stable development of Xinjiang jujube industry. Using long-term (1961 2012) climate data from 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang region along with linear regression, cumulative anomaly, t-test and mixed spatial interpolation analyses in ArcGIS environment, the study analyzed the fundamental characteristics of spatio-temporal changes in ≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature, extreme minimum temperature in winter and mean temperature for June July. The impact of climate change on jujube planting zones was studied in relation to climate division index of jujube planting zones. The results showed that spatial distributions of ≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature, extreme minimum temperature and mean temperature for June July obviously varied from place to place in Xinjiang. Generally, these factors were higher in the south than in the north and in the plain/basin than in the mountain regions of jujube planting zones in Xinjiang. On the backdrop of global warming in the last 52 years, ≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature, extreme minimum temperature and mean temperature for June July showed significantly increasing trends by the tendency rate of 62.22 ℃.d.10a^-1, 0.551 ℃.10a^-1 and 0.221 ℃.10a^-1, respectively, and with significant changes in 1997, 1982 and 1994. With this effect, suitable planting areas of jujube increased by 1.2 × 10⁵ km² after 1997, representing 7.3 percentage points increase in total area ratio. The areas with sub-suitability for planting jujube decreased by 4.0 × 10⁴ km², representing 2.4 percentage points decrease in total area ratio. Also areas classified as unsuitable for planting jujube decreased by and 8.0×10⁴ km², representing 4.9 percentage points decrease in total area ratio. While climate change increased the areas suitable for planting jujube, it decreased sub-suitable area and unsuitable areas for planting jujube in Xinjiang. This was critical for enhancing the development of jujube industry in Xinjiang.