Evaluation of the suitability and influencing factors of winter rapeseed planting in Gansu Province

Research have shown that under global climate change, the development of winter rapeseed cultivation technology and the introduction of new varieties have significantly changed traditional crop production patterns and structures of winter rapeseed. Winter rapeseed planting regions have extended northwards and the altitudes increased which have in turn increased crop planting area and output in Gansu Province. Through analysis of the adaption of winter rapeseed to climate change using GIS spatial platform and maximum entropy models, this paper provided the basic reference for improving winter rapeseed production layout and restructuring of agricultural construction. The study analyzed the main influencing factors and distribution characteristics of winter rapeseed planting patterns in Gansu Province. It also simulated the adaption of winter rapeseed to climate change and provided reasonable scientific suggestions on the production patterns of winter rapeseed in Gansu Province. The growth regions were divided into four types based on the degree of adaption to climate - unsuitable area, less suitable area, suitable area and optimum area. The results showed that the winter rapeseed planting area accounted for 60% of the total area, which was greater than the actual planting area in Gansu Province. The planting distribution probability of winter rapeseed was 0 0.89 and with significant potential for the development of winter rapeseed cultivation in Gansu Province. The key climatic factors affecting the cultivation, distribution of winter rapeseed production were precipitation during the growth period, negative cumulative temperatures, minimum temperature of the coldest month, average temperature of the coldest month, annual average temperature and extreme low temperature. And their limits were 50?200 mm, ≥?800, ≥?20 ℃, ≥?15 ℃, ≥4 ℃ and ≥-28 ℃.