Analysis on the evolutionary trends of regional agrometeorological disasters in China

By comparative analysis of four kinds of agrometeorological disasters including drought, flood, hailstorm and windstorm, frostbite during two periods from 1953 to 1966 and from 1978 to 1996, we had found out that there were three kinds of evolutionary trends existing in most of regions in china: increasing disaster frequency, expanding areas covered by meteorological disasters and decreasing fluctuation of meteorological disasters. According to the grey system theory, the leading cause of meteorological disaster in each region had been diagnosed and all the regions had fallen into 8 categories based on the sequence of contribution of each meteorological disaster to the total disaster area to facilitate designing agricultural development strategies and arranging regional agricultural patterns reasonably.