Forecast model for prevalent stripe rust in winter wheat in Shanxi Province

The factors that affect wheat stripe rust in Shanxi Province were analyzed and wheat stripe rust forecast model formulated:Y=-0.2766+0.0249X₁+0.0104X₂+0.0132X₃.The forecast model is a regression analysis of data from 1981 to 2003.It is shown by regression test that the model simulation matches with history records for 87.5% of tested cases.Rainfall from mid April to late May significantly affect stripe rust prevalence.